Journal Of Economic Perspectives Symposium: The Tax Cuts And Jobs Act Of 2017

Symposium, The Tax Cuts And Jobs Act Of 2017, 38 J. Econ. Persp. 3-136 (2024): 

William G. Gale (Brookings Institution; Google Scholar), Jeffrey L. Hoopes (North Carolina; Google Scholar) & Kyle Pomerleau (American Enterprise Institute), Sweeping Changes and an Uncertain Legacy: The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, 38 J. Econ. Persp. 3 (2024) (reviewed here by Sloan Speck (Colorado; Google Scholar)): 

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 introduced sweeping changes to individual and corporate taxation. We summarize the major provisions, trace the origins of the Act, and compare it to previous tax changes. We also examine the effects on the government budget, economic activity, and distribution of resources. Based on evidence through 2019, we find that the TCJA clearly raised federal debt and increased after-tax incomes, disproportionately increasing incomes for the most affluent. Its effects on GDP and median wages seem modest at best, although clear counterfactuals are difficult to identify. The impact on investment is less certain, and research is only recently emerging that addresses this question. Empirical analysis of longer-term effects may prove difficult due to the disruptions created by the COVID-19 pandemic starting in 2020.

Jon Bakija (Williams College; Google Scholar), The US Individual Income Tax: Recent Evolution and Evidence, 38 J. Econ. Persp. 33 (2024):

This paper assesses the current state of the US federal individual taxation, and considers its recent evolution, with an emphasis on the changes to the individual income tax enacted in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), and evidence on their impacts. How has the design of the tax changed, and how has this affected tax revenues, the distribution of tax burdens, marginal tax rates, and the breadth of the tax base? What were the rationales for the changes, and what does economics have to contribute to the debate over whether the changes were a good idea? What have we learned so far from empirical research on the impacts of recent changes in individual tax policy, including especially the changes enacted since 2017, and what does this imply for the optimal design of individual taxation?

Gabriel Chodorow-Reich (Harvard; Google Scholar), Owen Zidar (Princeton; Google Scholar) & Eric Zwick (Chicago; Google Scholar), The US Individual Income Tax: Recent Evolution and Evidence, 38 J. Econ. Persp. 61 (2024): 

We assess the business provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, the biggest corporate tax cut in US history. We draw five lessons. First, corporate tax revenue fell by 40 percent due to the lower rate and more generous expensing. Second, firms with larger declines in their effective tax wedge increased investment relatively more. In aggregate, we suggest a loose consensus from the literature that total tangible corporate investment increased by 11 percent. Third, the business tax provisions increased economic growth and wages by less than advertised by the Act's proponents, with long-run GDP higher by less than 1 percent and labor income by less than $1,000 per employee. Fourth, provisions that increase foreign investment by US-based multinationals also boost their domestic operations. Fifth, some of the expired and expiring provisions, such as accelerated depreciation, generate more investment per dollar of tax revenue than others.

Kimberly A. Clausing (UCLA; Google Scholar), US International Corporate Taxation after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, 38 J. Econ. Persp. 89 (2024): 

The root dilemma that informs the past, present, and future of US international taxation is the tension between two desiderata: protecting the corporate tax base from erosion and ensuring the competitiveness of US multinational firms in the world economy. This article begins by exploring that tension, discussing the evidence behind these competing policy goals. It then considers the international tax provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. TCJA enacted transformative changes in US corporate tax policy, but it did not resolve long held policy concerns. While research on TCJA is in early stages, evidence indicates that TCJA substantially reduced corporate tax revenues, that TCJA's international provisions (as a whole) raised less revenue than expected, that offshoring and profit shifting remain large policy concerns, that changes in US multinational company competitiveness were mixed, and that underlying trends in wages and investment did not change due to TCJA. While TCJA was unable to resolve the tension between competitiveness and tax base protection, the Pillar 2 international tax agreement shows more promise in that regard. As countries throughout the world implement a "country-by-country" minimum tax on multinational income of 15 percent, this has the potential to disrupt long-standing arguments about international corporate taxation.

Kevin Corinth (American Enterprise Institute) & Naomi Feldman (Hebrew University; Google Scholar), Are Opportunity Zones an Effective Place-Based Policy?, 38 J. Econ. Persp. 113 (2024): 

We evaluate the Opportunity Zones provision of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, focusing on its targeting and effects on investment and resident outcomes. The policy allowed substantial discretion for state governors to designate Opportunity Zones that were not necessarily the most distressed, though we find that in aggregate their ultimate selections were still somewhat well-targeted. However, we show that the policy is insufficient to encourage investment with a significantly below-market rate of return and provides the largest tax benefits to investment that would have occurred regardless of the policy. Consistent with these features of the policy's design, a substantial amount of Opportunity Zone investment has been made, including in many lower-income areas. However, it appears that much of the investment would have occurred anyway, and the evidence to date mostly points to limited effects on resident wellbeing.

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