Paul L. Caron

Thursday, December 30, 2021

New U.S. Census Data: Major Migration From Blue States To Red States

U.S. Census Bureau, New Vintage 2021 Population Estimates Available for the Nation, States and Puerto Rico:

According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Vintage 2021 national and state population estimates and components of change released today, the population of the United States grew in the past year by 392,665, or 0.1%, the lowest rate since the nation’s founding. The slow rate of growth can be attributed to decreased net international migration, decreased fertility, and increased mortality due in part to the COVID-19 pandemic. ...

  • The largest net domestic migration gains were in Florida (220,890), Texas (170,307) and Arizona (93,026). ...
  • In 2021, 20 states and the District of Columbia lost residents via net domestic migration. Largest domestic migration losses were in California (-367,299), New York (-352,185) and Illinois (-122,460).

Census 1Wall Street Journal editorial, The Great Pandemic Migration: Census Data Reveal Huge Shifts Out of the Most Locked-Down States:

The pandemic has changed America in many ways, and one major change is the migration from states that locked down their economies and schools the most to those that kept them largely open. ...

9 of the 10 states with the largest population losses voted for Joe Biden in 2020. 8 of the 10 states with the largest population gains voted for Donald Trump.

Census 2

There’s also the impact of rising taxes. Although Washington State (which has no income tax) before the pandemic had been drawing people from other states, it saw a small net outflow this past year. Gov. Jay Inslee’s severe lockdowns and school closures are probably culprits. But the state isn’t helping by imposing a 7% tax on capital gains exceeding $250,000 that will take effect Jan. 1. Remote work has made high earners more mobile, and raising their taxes is fiscally self-destructive.

Mr. Cuomo is the king of self-destruction. In the spring he signed legislation raising income taxes on individuals making more than $1 million even as tax revenues surged. The top state-and-local combined rate climbed to 14.8% from 12.7% on income of more than $25 million. Good luck to Eric Adams, New York City’s mayor-elect, who is forced to plead with high earners to return from Florida.

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