Monday, May 3, 2021
Following up on last week's post on the booming Fall 2021 law school admissions season: Mike Spivey (Spivey Consulting), Brief Application Volume/LSAT Update and a Glimpse at Next Cycle:
We also have our first glimpse of the 2021-2022 application cycle. Or rather, our first solid data-based glimpse. June 2021 LSAT registrations closed as of midnight yesterday. 42,321 people are signed up to take the test. That's a heck of a lot [a 300% increase over the final June 2020 registrants]. Now obviously many of them will drop out, and that number will go down — potentially a good deal. Still, even if one in three registrants drop out, June 2021 will be the largest June LSAT since 2010. . . . [S]uch a large number of potential June takers could be an ominous sign for 2021-2022 applicants, and an encouraging one for law schools hopeful that this wasn't a one year blip in applicant volume.
It's worth remembering that June is just one data point, and it's not even final data yet. It's not outside the realm of possibility that fully half the June registrants drop out or switch their test date. And we have to believe that high LSAT scores won't be up as much on the 2021-2022 tests. It seems inevitable there will be some return to a more normal distribution. Still, the registration numbers suggest 2021-2022 won't start off slow, at the very least.