Paul L. Caron
Dean




Tuesday, December 29, 2020

Organ: Comparing Congressional Election Results With Presidential Election Results In Key Swing States

In trying to understand how statistics might inform one’s understanding of claims of electoral fraud and inform our understanding of how President Trump lost the election in key swing states, I have looked at the comparisons of voting within Congressional districts.  Congressional districts provide an interesting framework because each Congressional district conceptually represents a comparable population of people, although both voter registration and voter turnout will vary across Congressional districts.

The Congressional results are from the CNN webpage.

The Presidential results are from the Daily KOS webpage.

This analysis proceeds in two parts.  First, it looks at the overall distribution of votes across Congressional districts in key swing states to see if there are aberrational patterns worth noting.  None were found. Second, it looks at results on a state-by-state basis to see what the state results can tell us about why President Trump lost and President-Elect Biden won in these states.  There appears to be one key lesson from these state-by-state analyses.  To the extent that there is a common theme across states, the theme appears to be that President Trump lost because he did not perform as well as Republican Congressional candidates in districts in which Republican Congressional candidates won in these states.  Phrased differently, people who voted for Republican Congressional candidates failed to vote for President Trump in the same numbers as they voted for Republican Congressional candidates – resulting in President Trump’s loss to President-Elect Biden in at least three of these swing states. 

Please note that because this blog post includes detailed analysis of the comparison of Congressional and Presidential results in five of the swing states -- Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin -- it is a fairly long post.

  1. Looking at Overall Voting Patterns in Congressional Districts in Swing States

Those claiming election fraud frequently reference that “tens of thousands” or “hundreds of thousands” of ballots were “dropped” or “showed up” in various voting locations.  If this claim were true, there should be some Congressional districts with “aberrational” numbers of ballots to correspond with the alleged electoral fraud.

The numbers do not reflect any “aberrations” in terms of number of ballots cast across Congressional districts in the five swing states for which information is available (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin).

Across these five states there were 49 Congressional districts contested in the November 2020 election.  The average number of votes cast for the Republican and Democratic candidates in the Congressional races in these 49 districts was 367,207, while the average number of votes cast for the two primary presidential candidates -- President Trump and President-Elect Biden --- across these 49 Congressional districts was 374,238.  Among these five swing states, Nevada was at the low end of the range for the average number of votes cast in each Congressional district, with averages of 324,838 for Congressional races and 343,344 for the Presidential race.  (Notably, Nevada had the largest “spread” of 18,506.) Wisconsin was at the high end of the range for the average number of votes cast in each Congressional district, with averages of 403,509 for Congressional races and 405,131 for the Presidential race.  (Notably, Wisconsin had the smallest “spread” of 1,622.)

In 24 Congressional districts, roughly half, the total number of votes cast for the two primary presidential candidates was within 30,000 of this average – between 344,000 and 404,000.  Fourteen districts had between 406,000 and 460,000 votes cast for the two primary presidential candidates, with 11 of these “higher-turnout” districts favoring President Trump.  Eleven districts had between 221,000 and 336,000 votes cast for the two primary presidential candidates.  Of those 11, six had between 312,000 votes and 336,000 votes cast for the two primary presidential candidates, with five of those six favoring President Trump.  Five of the 11 featured between 221,000 and 288,000 votes casts for the two primary presidential candidates, with all five of these “lower-turnout” districts favoring President-Elect Biden.

Thus, when looking at the data broadly, there is nothing unusual in the data to suggest electoral fraud of any sort.  There is a relatively broad distribution with a modest concentration in the middle of the range, as one would expect.  There is no Congressional district in which an “aberrational” number of votes were cast that would be consistent with a claim that there were “tens of thousands” or “hundreds of thousands” of ballots that suddenly appeared.  Indeed, in two of the Congressional districts in which the President’s campaign has challenged vote counts – one covering parts of Wayne County in Michigan (288,000) and one coverings parts of Milwaukee County in Wisconsin (314,000) – there were a relatively small number of votes compared to the average across Congressional districts. 

  1. State-by-State Analysis

The state-by-state analyses start with a compilation of the Congressional races in each state to reflect Republican and Democratic participation in each state across all Congressional districts.  Then the analyses look at the vote tallies from President Trump and President-Elect Biden in each Congressional district to compare the results for each candidate relative to the corresponding Congressional candidate in that district. 

These data are complicated by the fact that more people voted in the Presidential election than in the Congressional elections.  In Wisconsin, there were 12,980 more votes for the Republican and Democratic Presidential candidates than for all of the Republican and Democratic Congressional candidates across all Congressional districts.  In Georgia, there were 43,024 more votes in the Presidential race.  In Arizona there were 66,995 more votes in the Presidential race.  In Nevada, there were 74,024 more votes in the Presidential race.  Finally, in Michigan, there were 147,484 more votes in the Presidential race. 

These “extra” Presidential voters – voters who voted in the Presidential election but not in a Congressional election -- make the analysis of Presidential voting difficult because there are some “unknowns” related to these “extra” Presidential voters. 

First, we don’t really know the number of “extra” Presidential voters.  The number of “extra” Presidential voters noted above within each state is the minimum number of “extra” Presidential voters.  This number is derived based on the assumption that all people who voted in the Congressional election in a given district also voted in the Presidential election.  That may not be true.  For example, some people who voted in the Congressional election may have decided not to vote in the Presidential election. Thus, the number of “extra” Presidential voters could be somewhat larger in each state.

Second, when the number of people voting for a Presidential candidate is larger than the number of people voting for that party’s Congressional candidate in that district, we can’t really identify whether that is because of “extra” Presidential voters or because of voters who switched sides – voters who voted for one party’s Congressional candidate and then voted for the other party’s Presidential candidate.

Third, when the number of people voting for a Presidential candidate in a Congressional district is less than the number of people who voted for that party’s Congressional candidate in that district, that difference reflects the minimum number of people who voted in the Congressional election but chose not to vote for the Presidential candidate of the same party. Given the existence of “extra” voters, there could be an even larger number of people who voted for a given party’s Congressional candidate but did not vote for that party’s Presidential candidate.

Fourth, when the number of people voting for a Presidential candidate in a Congressional district is less than the number of people who voted for that party’s Congressional candidate in that district, we cannot know for sure whether those not voting for the Presidential candidate of the same party chose not to vote or chose to vote for the candidate of the other party. 

Fifth, we cannot know for sure what the “split” was in terms of “extra” Presidential voters – i.e., the number who voted for President Trump as compared with the number who voted for President-Elect Biden.

Thus, when one looks at the data on a state-by-state basis, one simply has to try to look at net gains (losses) for Presidential candidates relative to their party’s Congressional candidates.  One cannot always explain the reasons for the difference – or may only be able to explain partially the reasons for the difference. 

  1. ARIZONA

In Arizona’s nine Congressional districts, the Democratic candidate won in five districts while the Republican candidate won in four districts.  As shown below in Table 1 – Arizona Congressional and Presidential Voting Comparisons, across all nine districts, Republican candidates garnered 1,637,516 votes, while the Democratic candidates garnered 1,629,318, a difference of only 8,198 votes in favor of Republicans.  In total there were 3,266,834 votes cast for Republicans or Democrats in the nine Congressional elections. 

The Presidential election in Arizona garnered greater participation, with a total of 3,333,829 votes cast for President Trump or President-Elect Biden.  President Trump received 1,661,686 (24,170 more votes than the total cast for Republican Congressional candidates), but President-Elect Biden received 1,672,143 (42,825 more votes than the total cast for Democratic Congressional candidates).  In total, there were 66,995 more votes cast for one of the two primary presidential candidates than for all of the Republican and Democratic Congressional candidates.  

Table 1 demonstrates that the biggest shifts in favor of Biden occurred in three Republican Congressional districts – AZ4, AZ5, and AZ8 -- in which the Republican candidate for Congress and President Trump won.  In each of those districts, however, the margin for Trump was less than the margin for the Republican Congressional candidate. 

In AZ5, President Trump gained 396 additional votes compared to the Republican Congressional candidate, while President-Elect Biden gained 12,099 additional votes compared to the Democratic Congressional candidate, a net gain for Biden of 11,703. 

In AZ8, Trump had 190 fewer votes than the Republican Congressional candidate, while Biden had 10,875 more votes than the Democratic Congressional candidate, a net gain of 11,065. 

Finally, in AZ4, Trump gained 2,120 votes, while Biden gained 5,540, a net gain of 3420 for Biden. 

In just these three “Republican” Congressional districts Biden had a net gain of 26,188 in total. The relative gain for Biden in these three districts almost certainly reflects that some number of people who voted for the Republican Congressional candidate did not vote for President Trump and either did not vote in the Presidential race or voted instead for President-Elect Biden.  (The net gain (or loss) for Biden (Column I) is calculated by taking the number of votes for Biden (Column E) less the number of Democratic Congressional votes (Column B) (tabulated in Column H) and then subtracting the difference between the number of votes for Trump (Column D) less the number of Republic Congressional votes (Column A) (tabulated in Column G).)

In three other Congressional districts, Biden also saw more modest gains. 

In AZ9, a Democratic Congressional district, Trump saw a gain of 2,514 votes relative to the Republican Congressional candidate, while Biden saw a gain of 7,098 relative to the Democratic Congressional candidate, a net gain for Biden of 4,584. 

In AZ2, another Democratic Congressional district, Trump saw a gain of 828, while Biden saw a gain of 3,423, for a net gain for Biden of 2,635. 

Finally, in AZ6, another Republican Congressional district, Trump saw a gain of 4,383, while Biden saw a gain of 4,721, a net gain for Biden of 338.  Across these three Congressional districts, Biden had a net gain of 7,557 in total.

Interestingly, however, in the remaining three “Democratic” districts – AZ1, AZ3, and AZ7 -- districts in which the Democratic candidate for Congress and President-Elect Biden won, Biden experienced a net loss.  That is, the margin for Biden was less than the margin for the Democratic Congressional candidate. 

In AZ7, Trump gained 5,210 relative to the Republican Congressional candidate, while Biden lost 323 votes relative to the Democratic Congressional candidate, a net loss of 5,533. 

In AZ1, Trump gained 3,964 votes, while Biden lost 1,287 votes, for a net loss for Biden of 5,251. 

Finally, in AZ3, Trump gained 4,945, while Biden gained 639 votes, for a net loss for Biden of 4,306 votes. 

In these three Democratic Congressional districts, Biden experienced a net loss of 15,090 in total. 

TABLE 1 – Arizona Congressional and Presidential Voting Comparisons

District

A.

Rep.

B.

Dem.

C.

Total

D.

Trump

E.

Biden

F.

Total

G. Trump Excess (Def.)

H. Biden Excess (Def.)

I.

Biden Net Gain (Loss)

AZ1

176709

188469

365178

180673

187182

367855

3964

(1287)

(5251)

AZ2

170975

209945

380920

171803

213408

385211

828

3463

2635

AZ3

94594

174243

268837

99539

174882

274421

4945

639

(4306)

AZ4

278002

120484

398486

280122

126024

406146

2120

5540

4584

AZ5

262414

183171

445585

262810

195270

458080

396

12099

11703

AZ6

217783

199644

417427

222166

204365

426531

4383

4721

338

AZ7

50226

165452

215678

55436

165129

220565

5210

(323)

(5533)

AZ8

251633

170816

422449

251443

181691

433134

(190)

10875

11065

AZ9

135180

217094

352274

137694

224192

361886

2514

7098

4584

Total

1637516

1629318

3266834

1661686

1672143

3333829

24170

42825

18655

 

Deficit

-8,198

Increase

24170

42825

66995

 

Margin

10467

With net gains for Biden in six Congressional districts (four of which were Republican districts), totaling 33,745, and net gains for Trump (net losses for Biden) in three Democratic Congressional districts, totaling 15,090, Biden gained statewide a net of 18,655, enough to take a Democratic deficit of 8,198 in the Congressional races and turn it into a surplus of 10,457 in the Presidential race.

Biden’s win in Arizona was cobbled together across six of the nine Congressional districts, but it was primarily Biden’s ability to gain ground in two Republican districts – AZ5 and AZ8 – with a net improvement of 22,768 votes over the Democratic Congressional candidates in those two districts—that was largely outcome determinative. 

Notably, this pattern of gains and losses across Congressional districts hardly presents evidence of a coordinated plan to commit election fraud.  Biden lost ground in three Democratic Congressional districts and gained ground in all four Republican Congressional districts along with two other Democratic Congressional districts, with two of the Republican Congressional districts -- AZ5 and AZ8 --  being the most notable. 

  1. GEORGIA

In Georgia’s 14 Congressional districts, the Democratic candidate won only six districts while the Republican candidate won eight districts.  As shown below in Table 2 – Georgia Congressional and Presidential Voting Comparisons, across all 14 districts, Republican candidates garnered 2,499,387 votes, while the Democratic candidates garnered 2,393,089 votes, a difference of 106,298 votes in favor of Republicans.  In total there were 4,892,476 votes cast for Republicans or Democrats in the 14 Congressional elections. 

The Presidential election in Georgia garnered slightly greater participation overall, with 4,935,500 votes cast for President Trump or President-Elect Biden.  Significantly, however, President Trump received only 2,461,855 votes (37,532 FEWER votes than Republican Congressional candidates in Georgia).  By contrast, President-Elect Biden received 2,473,645 (80,556 MORE votes than Democratic Congressional candidates).  Simply put, if President Trump had received as many votes as the Republican Congressional candidates in Georgia, he would have won Georgia.  The reason President Trump lost Georgia is because at least 37,532 people who voted for Republican Congressional candidates in Georgia did not vote for President Trump, and either did not vote or voted for President-Elect Biden instead.

In Georgia, President Trump started with a 106,298 advantage if all people voting for Republican Congressional candidates had voted for President Trump.  But that is not what happened.  Instead, at least 37,532 voters who voted for Republican Congressional candidates did not vote for President Trump.  If we assume that all the Republican Congressional voters who did not vote for President Trump voted for President-Elect Biden, that would have resulted in a “swing” of 75,064 votes in favor of President-Elect Biden. In addition, as in Arizona, there were at least 43,024 additional voters who voted in the Presidential election but not in the Congressional elections.

Through the combination of people who voted for Republican Congressional candidates but did not vote President Trump and may have voted for President-Elect Biden instead, along with some number of additional Presidential voters, President-Elect Biden had a net gain of 118,088, more than enough to overcome the initial deficit of 106,298 votes. 

There were 10 Congressional districts in which shifts in favor of Biden occurred, seven of which were Republican Congressional districts (districts in which the Republican Congressional candidate and President Trump both won).  In each of those seven Republican Congressional districts, the margin for Trump was less than the margin for the Republican Congressional candidate.  In six of those seven districts, the net gain for Biden was at least 10,000 votes. 

In GA11, Trump lost 10,329 votes relative to the Republican Congressional candidate while Biden gained 11,030 votes relative to the Democratic Congressional candidate, a net gain of 22,359. 

In GA3, Trump lost 5,528, while Biden gained 10,433, a net gain of 15,961. 

In GA10, Trump lost 5,021, while Biden gained 9,020, a net gain of 14,041. 

In GA1, Trump lost 4,613, while Biden gained 8,327, a net gain of 12,940. 

In GA12, Trump lost 3,896, while Biden gained 7,577, a net gain of 11,473.

In GA8, Trump lost 2,831, while Biden gained 7,652, a net gain of 10,483. 

In the seventh Republican district, GA9, Trump lost 758, while Biden gained 5,684, a net gain of 6,442. 

Just across those seven Republican districts, Biden’s net gain totaled 93,699.

The three Democratic Congressional districts in which a shift in favor of Biden occurred were GA5, GA6, and GA7.  These were districts in which Biden beat Trump by more than the Democratic Congressional candidate beat the Republican Congressional candidate. 

In GA5, Trump lost 6,725 votes, while Biden gained 11,201 votes, a net gain of 17,926. 

In GA6, Trump lost 14,210 votes, while Biden gained 2,847, a net gain of 17,057. 

In GA7, Trump lost 5,354, while Biden gained 8,244, a net gain of 13,598. 

Across these three districts, Biden gained 47,951.

The other four Congressional districts swung in favor of President Trump, three of which were Democratic Congressional districts (districts in which both the Democratic Congressional candidate and President-Elect Biden received the most votes). 

In GA2, President Trump gained 9,099 votes while President-Elect Biden lost 6,417 votes, a net loss for Biden of 15,516. 

In GA13, Trump gained 4,454 votes, while Biden lost 1,046 votes, a net loss for Biden of 5,500. 

In GA4, Trump gained 2,999, while Biden gained 2,829, a net loss for Biden of 170 votes.  

Finally, in GA14, a Republican Congressional district, Trump gained 5,181 votes, while Biden gained 3,175, for a net loss for Biden of 2,006 votes. 

In total, across these four Congressional districts, Biden saw a net loss of 23,192 votes.

TABLE 2 – Georgia Congressional and Presidential Voting Comparisons

District

A.

Rep.

B.

Dem.

C.

Total

D.

Trump

E.

Biden

F.

Total

G. Trump Excess (Def.)

H.

Biden Excess (Def.)

I.

Biden Net Gain (Loss)

G1

189457

135238

324695

184844

143565

328409

(4613)

8327

12940

G2

111620

161397

273017

120719

154980

275699

9099

(6417)

(15516)

G3

241526

129792

371318

235998

140225

376223

(5528)

10433

15961

G4

69393

278906

348299

72392

281735

354127

2999

2829

(170)

G5

52646

301857

354503

45921

313058

358979

(6725)

11201

17926

G6

189320

216775

406095

175110

219622

394732

(14210)

2847

17057

G7

180564

190900

371464

175210

199144

374354

(5354)

8244

13598

G8

198701

109264

307965

195870

116916

312786

(2831)

7652

10483

G9

292750

79797

372547

291992

85481

377473

(758)

5684

6442

G10

235810

142636

378446

230789

151656

382445

(5021)

9020

14041

G11

245259

160623

405882

234930

171653

406583

(10329)

11030

21359

G12

181038

129061

310099

177142

136638

313780

(3896)

7577

11473

G13

81476

279045

360521

85930

277999

363929

4454

(1046)

(5500)

G14

229827

77798

307625

235008

80973

315981

5181

3175

(2006)

Total

2499387

2393089

4892476

2461855

2473645

4935500

(37532)

80556

118088

 

Deficit

-106298

Change

-37532

80556

43024

 

Margin

11790

With net gains of 93,699 in seven Republican Congressional districts, net gains of 47,951 in three Democratic Congressional districts, and a net loss of 23,192 in the other four Congressional districts, Biden had an overall net gain of 118,088 – more than enough to overcome the 106,298 vote advantage that Republican Congressional candidates had over Democratic Congressional candidates and turn it into a 11,790 vote margin of victory.

Biden’s win in Georgia resulted from widespread modest gains in 10 of the 14 Congressional districts, including seven Republican Congressional districts.  As noted above, President Trump lost Georgia because a number of people who voted for Republican Congressional candidates abandoned him and appear to have voted for President-Elect Biden instead. The problem for President Trump in Georgia was not a function of electoral fraud.  Nothing was stolen.  Rather, it was a function of dissatisfaction among a large enough group of people who voted for Republican Congressional candidates but who chose not to vote for President Trump and gave their votes (and a victory in Georgia) to President-Elect Biden.

  1. MICHIGAN

In Michigan’s 14 Congressional districts, the Democratic candidate won seven districts while the Republican candidate won seven districts.  As shown below in Table 3 – Michigan Congressional and Presidential Voting Comparisons, across all 14 districts, Republican candidates garnered 2,617,881 votes, while the Democratic candidates garnered 2,688,527 votes, a difference of 70,646 votes in favor of the Democrats.  In total there were 5,306,408 votes cast for Republicans or Democrats in the 14 Congressional elections. 

As with Arizona and Georgia, there were a large number of voters who voted in the Presidential election but not in the Congressional elections.  As a result, the Presidential election in Michigan generated 5,453,854 votes cast for President Trump or President-Elect Biden, an increase of 147,484 voters.  Significantly, however, President Trump received only 2,649,852 votes (31,971 more votes than Republican Congressional candidates in Michigan).  By contrast, President-Elect Biden received 2,804,040 (115,513 more votes than Democratic Congressional candidates). 

Given how the Congressional vote unfolded in Michigan, President Trump was unlikely to carry the day, but the Presidential vote swung even more in favor of President-Elect Biden, expanding the margin of victory to over 150,000.

There were ten Congressional districts in which shifts in favor of Biden occurred, including all seven Republican Congressional districts (districts in which the Republican Congressional candidate and President Trump both won).  In each of those seven Republican Congressional districts, the margin for Trump was less than the margin for the Republican Congressional candidate.  In four of those seven districts, the net gain for Biden was at least 30,000 votes.  These four Republican Congressional districts marked the vast majority of Biden’s gains.

In MI6, Trump lost 13,988 votes relative to the Republican Congressional candidate while Biden gained 28,057 votes relative to the Democratic Congressional candidate, a net gain of 42,045. 

In MI2, Trump lost 13,303 votes, while Biden gained 22,922 a net gain of 36,225. 

In MI1, Trump lost 12,126, while Biden gained 18,074, a net gain of 30,200. 

In MI4, Trump lost 8,182, while Biden gained 21,829, a net gain of 30,011. 

Across these four Republican Congressional districts President-Elect Biden gained 138,481 votes

In the other three Republican Congressional districts (MI3, MI7, MI10), and in three Democratic Congressional districts (MI11, MI13, MI14), President-Elect Biden experienced more modest gains.  Taking the three Republican Congressional districts first:

In MI3, Trump lost 5,887, while Biden gained 4,806, a net gain of 10,693.

In MI7, Trump lost 2,941, while Biden gained. 5,198, for a net gain of 8,139. 

In MI10, Trump actually gained 2,264 votes, but Biden gained 8,708, a net gain of 6,444. 

In the three Democratic Congressional districts, President Trump gained votes relative to the Republican Congressional candidate, but President-Elect Biden gained more votes relative to the Democratic Congressional candidate. 

In M11, Trump gained 1,394 votes, but Biden gained 11,568 votes, a net gain of 10,174. 

In MI13, Trump gained 4,851 votes, while Biden gained 6,330, a net gain of 1,479. 

In MI14, Trump gained 5,367, while Biden gained 5,477, a net gain of 110. 

Across this combination of three Republican Congressional districts and three Democratic Congressional districts, President-Elect Biden gained a total of 37,039 votes.  Thus, these six districts were helpful to Biden, but were far less helpful than the first four Republican Congressional districts described above.

The other four Congressional districts swung in favor of President Trump by between 18,000 and 29,000 votes.  Three of these were Democratic Congressional districts (districts in which both the Democratic Congressional candidate and President-Elect Biden received the most votes).  One was a “mixed” district – a district in which the Democratic Congressional candidate won in the Congressional race, but in which President Trump won in the Presidential race. 

In MI5, President Trump gained 22,440 votes relative to the Republican Congressional candidate, while President-Elect Biden lost 7372 votes relative to the Democratic Congressional candidate, a net loss of 29,812 for Biden. 

In MI9, Trump gained 21,785, while Biden lost 1,060, a net loss of 22,845 for Biden. 

In MI12, Trump gained 17,173, while Biden lost 3,187, a net loss of 20,360. 

Finally, in the “mixed” district, MI8, Trump gained 13,124, while Biden lost 5,837, a net loss of 18,961. 

In these four districts, President-Elect Biden experienced a net loss of 91,978 votes.

Table 3 – Michigan Congressional and Presidential Voting Comparisons

District

A.

Rep.

B.

Dem.

C.

Total

D.

Trump

E.

Biden

F.

Total

G. Trump Excess (Def.)

H.

Biden Excess (Def.)

I.

Biden Net Gain (Loss)

MI1

256581

153328

409909

244455

171402

415857

(12126)

18074

30200

MI2

238711

154122

392833

225408

177044

402452

(13303)

22922

36225

MI3

213649

189769

403418

207762

194575

402337

(5887)

4806

10693

MI4

242621

120802

363423

234439

142631

377070

(8182)

21829

30011

MI5

150772

196599

347371

173212

189227

362439

22440

(7372)

(29812)

MI6

211496

152085

363581

197508

180142

377650

(13988)

28057

42045

MI7

227524

159743

387267

224583

164941

389524

(2941)

5198

8139

MI8

202525

217922

420447

215649

212085

427734

13124

5837

(18961)

MI9

153296

230318

383614

175081

229258

404339

21785

(1060)

(22845)

MI10

271607

138179

409786

273871

146887

420758

2264

8708

6444

MI11

215405

226128

441533

216799

237696

454495

1394

11568

10174

MI12

117719

254957

372676

134892

251770

386662

17173

(3187)

(20360)

MI13

53311

223205

276516

58162

229535

287697

4851

6330

1479

MI14

62664

271370

334034

68031

276847

344878

5367

5477

110

Total

2617881

2688527

5306408

2649852

2804040

5453892

31971

115513

83542

 

Surplus

70646

Change

31971

115513

147484

 

Margin

154188

With net gains of 138,481 votes in four Republican Congressional districts, and net gains of 37,039 in six other Congressional districts (three Republican and three Democratic), and a net loss of 91,978 votes in the other four Congressional districts (three of which were Democratic districts and one of which President Trump won even though a Democrat won the Congressional race), President-Elect Biden had an overall net gain of 83,542 votes to supplement the 70,646 vote margin that Democratic Congressional candidates had over Republican Congressional candidates, to yield the 154,188 vote margin of victory.

Biden’s win in Michigan resulted from significant gains in four Republican Congressional districts supplemented by widespread modest gains in six other Congressional districts, counterbalanced by losses in four Democratic Congressional districts.  President Trump was likely to lose Michigan, given that there were more votes for Democratic Congressional candidates than for Republican Congressional candidates, but the margin expanded primarily because large numbers of people who voted for Republican Congressional candidates abandoned President Trump and either did not vote in the Presidential election or voted for President-Elect Biden.   The problem for President Trump in Michigan was not a function of electoral fraud.  The election in Michigan was not stolen.  Trump lost in Michigan largely because of dissatisfaction among a large enough group of people who voted for Republican Congressional candidates but who voted for Biden instead of Trump and thereby assured President-Elect Biden the victory in Michigan.

  1. NEVADA

In Nevada’s four Congressional districts, the Democratic candidate won in three districts while the Republican candidate won in one district.  As shown below in Table 4 – Nevada Congressional and Presidential Voting Comparisons, across all four districts, Republican candidates garnered 633,827 votes, while the Democratic candidates garnered 665,526, a difference of only 31,699 votes in favor of Democrats.  In total there were 1,299,353 votes cast for Republicans or Democrats in the nine Congressional elections. 

The Presidential election in Nevada garnered greater participation, with a total of 1,373,377 votes cast for President Trump or President-Elect Biden, 74,024 votes more than were cast for the Republican and Democratic candidates in the Congressional elections.  President Trump received 669,891 (36,064 more votes than the total cast for Republican Congressional candidates), but President-Elect Biden received 703,486 (37,960 more votes than the total cast for Democratic Congressional candidates).  In total, there were 74,024 more votes cast for one of the two primary presidential candidates than for all of the Republican and Democratic Congressional candidates.

Table 4 demonstrates that there was a shift in favor of Biden in the one Republican Congressional district, and that there was a shift in favor of Trump in the three Democratic Congressional districts.

In NV2, the one Republican Congressional district, Trump lost 5,823 votes relative to the Republican Congressional candidate, while President-Elect Biden gained 15,244 votes relative to the Democratic Congressional candidate, for a net gain of 21,067 votes for Biden.

In NV1, NV3, and NV4, the three Democratic Congressional districts, however, it was a different story.

In NV3, Trump gained 22,327 votes relative to the Republican Congressional candidate, while Biden gained 10,760 relative to the Democratic Congressional candidate, a net loss for Biden of 11,567. 

In NV1, Trump gained 10,486, while Biden gained 5,556, a net loss for Biden of 4,930. 

In NV4, Trump gained 9,074, while Biden gained 6,400, a net loss for Biden of 2,674. 

Across these three Congressional districts, Biden saw a net loss of 19,171.  Thus, across all four Congressional districts in Nevada, Biden saw a net gain of 1,896, slightly increasing the margin of victory in the state beyond the margin Democratic Congressional candidates held over Republican Congressional candidates. 

 Table 4 – Nevada Congressional and Presidential Voting Comparisons

District

A.

Rep.

B.

Dem.

C.

Total

D.

Trump

E.

Biden

F.

Total

G. Trump Excess (Def.)

H.

Biden Excess (Def.)

I.

Biden Net Gain (Loss)

N1

74490

137868

212358

84976

143424

228400

10486

5556

(4930)

N2

216078

155780

371858

210255

171024

381279

(5823)

15244

21067

N3

190975

203421

394396

213302

214181

427483

22327

10760

(11567)

N4

152284

168457

320741

161358

174857

336215

9074

6400

(2674)

Total

633827

665526

1299353

669891

703486

1373377

36064

37960

1896

 

Surplus

31699

Change

36064

37960

74024

 

Margin

33595

President-Elect Biden’s win in Nevada started with a slightly stronger showing by Democratic Congressional candidates than by Republican Congressional candidates.  As in Arizona, there were tens of thousands of voters who voted in the Presidential race but not in the Congressional races.  Interestingly, Biden gained ground in the one Republican Congressional district while Trump gained ground in all three Democratic Congressional districts, with the overall change being marginal.   

Once again, this pattern of gains and losses across Congressional districts hardly presents evidence of a coordinated plan to commit election fraud.  Biden lost ground in three Democratic Congressional districts and gained ground in the one Republican Congressional district.  The Nevada story is a story of more people voting in the Presidential election than in the Congressional elections, with slightly more of those people seemingly voting for Biden than for Trump.

  1. WISCONSIN

In Wisconsin’s eight Congressional districts, the Democratic candidate won in three districts while the Republican candidate won in five districts.  As shown below in Table 5 – Wisconsin Congressional and Presidential Voting Comparisons, across all eight districts, Republican candidates garnered 1,661,399 votes, while the Democratic candidates garnered 1,566,671, a difference of 94,728 votes in favor of Republicans.  In total there were 3,228,070 votes cast for Republicans or Democrats in the nine Congressional elections. 

The Presidential election in Wisconsin garnered slightly greater participation, with a total of 3,241,050 votes cast for President Trump or President-Elect Biden.  President Trump received 1,610,184 (51,215 FEWER votes than the total cast for Republican Congressional candidates), but President-Elect Biden received 1,630,866 (64,195 MORE votes than the total cast for Democratic Congressional candidates). Simply put, as with Georgia, if President Trump had received as many votes as the Republican Congressional candidates in Wisconsin, he would have won Wisconsin.  The reason President Trump lost Wisconsin is because at least 51,215 people who voted for Republican Congressional candidates in Wisconsin did not vote for President Trump.

In Wisconsin, President Trump started with a 94,728 advantage if all people voting for Republican Congressional candidates had voted for President Trump and all people voting for Democratic Congressional candidates had voted for President-Elect Biden.  But that is not what happened.  Instead, at least 51,215 voters who voted for Republican Congressional candidates did not vote for President Trump and  either did not vote or may have voted for President-Elect Biden. If we assume that all voters in Republican Congressional districts who did not vote for President Trump voted for President-Elect Biden, that would have resulted in a “swing” of 102,430 votes in favor of President-Elect Biden.  That would have been enough, by itself, to swing Wisconsin to Biden. 

In addition, there were at least 12,980 people who voted in the Presidential election but not in the Congressional elections.  Through the combination of people who voted for Republican Congressional candidates but did not vote President Trump and may have voted for President-Elect Biden instead, along with some number of additional Presidential voters, President-Elect Biden had a net gain of 115,410, more than enough to overcome the initial deficit of 94,728 votes.

Table 5 demonstrates that the biggest shifts in favor of Biden occurred in three Republican Congressional Districts – WI1, WI5, and WI8 – all in the eastern part of the state -- in which the Republican candidate for Congress and President Trump won.  In each of those districts, however, the margin for Trump was less than the margin for the Republican Congressional candidate. 

In WI8, President Trump had 27,033 fewer votes than the Republican Congressional candidate, while President-Elect Biden had 24,578 more votes than the Democratic Congressional candidate, a net gain of 51,611 for Biden. 

In WI1, Trump has 17,603 fewer votes, while Biden had 19,772 more votes, a net gain of 37,375 for Biden. 

In WI5, Trump had 9,631 fewer votes, while Biden had 11,949 more motes, a net gain of 21,580. 

Across just these three Congressional districts – all Republican districts – Biden had a net gain of 110,566.  These three Republican Congressional districts, on their own, essentially cost Trump the state of Wisconsin.

Two other Republican Congressional districts and two Democratic Congressional districts also favored Biden, although by much more modest amounts.  The two Republican Congressional districts were WI6 and WI7; the Democratic Congressional districts were W2 and W4.

In WI6, a Republican Congressional district, Trump had 6054 fewer votes than the Republican Congressional candidate, while Biden had 6,217 more votes than the Democratic Congressional candidate, a net gain of 12,272 for Biden.

In WI4, a Democratic Congressional district, Trump had 1,064 more votes than the Republican Congressional candidate, while Biden had 9,595 votes more than the Democratic Congressional candidate, a net gain of 8,531 for Biden.

In WI2, a Democratic Congressional district, Trump had 1,867 fewer votes than the Republican Congressional candidate, while Biden had 5,284 votes more than the Democratic Congressional candidate, a net gain of 7,151 for Biden.

Finally, in WI7, a Republican Congressional district, Trump had 3,226 fewer votes than the Republican Congressional candidate, while Biden had 2,363 votes more than the Democratic Congressional candidate, a net gain of 5,589 for Biden.

Across these four Congressional districts, Biden had a total net gain of 33,543 votes.

The final Congressional district, W3, was a “mixed” district – a district in which the Democratic Congressional candidate won in the Congressional race, but in which President Trump won in the Presidential race.  In W3, Trump garnered 13,135 more votes than the Republican Congressional candidate, while Biden had 15,564 fewer votes than the Democratic Congressional candidate, resulting in a net loss for Biden of 28,699 votes.

Table 5 – Wisconsin Congressional and Presidential Voting Comparisons

District

A.

Rep.

B.

Dem.

C.

Total

D.

Trump

E.

Biden

F.

Total

G. Trump Excess (Def.)

H.

Biden Excess (Def.)

I.

Biden Net Gain (Loss)

W1

238271

163170

401441

220668

182942

403610

(17603)

19772

37375

W2

138306

318523

456829

136439

323807

460246

(1867)

5284

7151

W3

189524

199870

389394

202659

184306

386965

13135

(15564)

(28699)

W4

70769

232668

303437

71833

242263

314096

1064

9595

8531

W5

265434

175902

441336

255803

187851

443654

(9631)

11949

21580

W6

238874

164239

403113

232820

170457

403277

(6054)

6218

12272

W7

252048

162741

414789

248822

165104

413926

(3226)

2363

5589

W8

268173

149558

417731

241140

174136

415276

(27033)

24578

51611

 

1661399

1566671

3228070

1610184

1630866

3241050

(51215)

64195

115410

 

Deficit

94728

Change

(51215)

64195

12980

 

Margin

20628

With net gains of 110,566 votes in three Republican Congressional districts, and net gains of 33,543 in four other Congressional districts (two Republican and two Democratic), and a net loss of 28,699 in one “mixed” Congressional district, Biden had an overall net gain of 115,410 votes to overcome the 94,728 vote deficit that Democratic Congressional candidates had relative to Republican Congressional candidates, to yield the 20,628 vote margin of victory in Wisconsin.

Biden’s win in Wisconsin resulted almost entirely from significant gains in three Republican Congressional districts in the eastern portion of the state (gains generated significantly by people who voted for Republican Congressional candidates, did not vote for President Trump, and may have voted for President-Elect Biden).  The gains for Biden across the other four districts were largely counterbalanced by the net loss for Biden in W3.  As noted above, President Trump lost Wisconsin because a number of people who voted for Republican Congressional candidates abandoned Trump and either did not vote or voted for President-Elect Biden.   The problem for President Trump in Wisconsin was not a function of electoral fraud.  Nothing was stolen.  Rather, it was a function of dissatisfaction among a large enough group of people who voted for Republican Congressional candidates but who chose not to vote for President Trump and gave their votes (and a victory in Wisconsin) to President-Elect Biden.

  1. Concluding Thoughts

There are 49 Congressional districts in the five swing states analyzed here – Arizona (9), Georgia (14), Michigan (14), Nevada (4) and Wisconsin (8).  They were almost perfectly evenly divided between districts won by Republican Congressional candidates (25) and districts won by Democratic Congressional candidates (24).  Of the 24 districts won by Democratic Congressional candidates, two (one in Michigan and one in Wisconsin) were won by President Trump rather than by President-Elect Biden.

Of the 25 Republican Congressional districts, President-Elect Biden had net gains in 24 of those districts.  Most significantly, in 20 of those districts, President Trump garnered fewer votes than the Republican Congressional candidate in those districts – so in 20 of those districts Trump lost votes that had gone to Republican Congressional candidates.

Of the 24 Democratic Congressional districts, President-Elect Biden had net losses in 13 of those districts.  More significantly, in only eight of those districts, did President-Elect Biden garner fewer votes than the Democratic Congressional candidate in those districts.

One intriguing aspect of these data involves the inverse relationship between the Congressional results in a given district and the results in the Presidential race.  In 37 of the 49 Congressional districts (24 Republican and 13 Democratic), the Presidential candidate from the party opposite of the party that won the Congressional election had a net gain in the district relative to the corresponding Congressional candidate.  In 28 of the 49 Congressional districts (20 Republican and 8 Democratic), the Presidential candidate for the party that won the Congressional election actually tallied fewer votes than the Congressional candidate of the same party.  The problem for President Trump is that this happened in 80% of the Republican Congressional districts, while it only happened in only 33% of the Democratic Congressional districts.  This suggests people who voted for Democratic Congressional candidates were more likely to be loyal to their presidential flag bearer than were people who voted for Republican Congressional candidates. 

As one reflects on the unfounded allegations of electoral fraud that have been rejected by state and federal courts in each of these states, I think one needs to consider what these data suggest.  Particularly in jurisdictions like Georgia and Wisconsin, where Republicans garnered more votes than Democrats in the Congressional races, but President Trump managed to lose, these data show that President Trump lost in these jurisdictions because in multiple counties in multiple Republican Congressional districts, dozens or hundreds or thousands of people who voted for Republican Congressional candidates opted not to vote for President Trump and may have opted to vote for President-Elect Biden.

Nothing was stolen.  Nothing was taken from President Trump.  President Trump lost in these five swing states because he failed to maintain the margin of victory of Republican Congressional candidates in 24 of the 25 Republican Congressional districts, and in fact, garnered fewer votes than the Republican Congressional candidates in 20 of the 25 Republican Congressional districts.     

https://taxprof.typepad.com/taxprof_blog/2020/12/comparing-congressional-election-results-with-presidential-election-results-in-key-swing-states.html

Jerry Organ, Legal Education, News, Political News | Permalink

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