Organ: Comparing Congressional Election Results With Presidential Election Results In Key Swing States

In trying to understand how statistics might inform one’s understanding of claims of electoral fraud and inform our understanding of how President Trump lost the election in key swing states, I have looked at the comparisons of voting within Congressional districts.  Congressional districts provide an interesting framework because each Congressional district conceptually represents a comparable population of people, although both voter registration and voter turnout will vary across Congressional districts.

The Congressional results are from the CNN webpage.

The Presidential results are from the Daily KOS webpage.

This analysis proceeds in two parts.  First, it looks at the overall distribution of votes across Congressional districts in key swing states to see if there are aberrational patterns worth noting.  None were found. Second, it looks at results on a state-by-state basis to see what the state results can tell us about why President Trump lost and President-Elect Biden won in these states.  There appears to be one key lesson from these state-by-state analyses.  To the extent that there is a common theme across states, the theme appears to be that President Trump lost because he did not perform as well as Republican Congressional candidates in districts in which Republican Congressional candidates won in these states.  Phrased differently, people who voted for Republican Congressional candidates failed to vote for President Trump in the same numbers as they voted for Republican Congressional candidates – resulting in President Trump’s loss to President-Elect Biden in at least three of these swing states. 

Please note that because this blog post includes detailed analysis of the comparison of Congressional and Presidential results in five of the swing states -- Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin -- it is a fairly long post.

1. Looking at Overall Voting Patterns in Congressional Districts in Swing States

Those claiming election fraud frequently reference that “tens of thousands” or “hundreds of thousands” of ballots were “dropped” or “showed up” in various voting locations.  If this claim were true, there should be some Congressional districts with “aberrational” numbers of ballots to correspond with the alleged electoral fraud.

The numbers do not reflect any “aberrations” in terms of number of ballots cast across Congressional districts in the five swing states for which information is available (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin).

Across these five states there were 49 Congressional districts contested in the November 2020 election.  The average number of votes cast for the Republican and Democratic candidates in the Congressional races in these 49 districts was 367,207, while the average number of votes cast for the two primary presidential candidates -- President Trump and President-Elect Biden --- across these 49 Congressional districts was 374,238.  Among these five swing states, Nevada was at the low end of the range for the average number of votes cast in each Congressional district, with averages of 324,838 for Congressional races and 343,344 for the Presidential race.  (Notably, Nevada had the largest “spread” of 18,506.) Wisconsin was at the high end of the range for the average number of votes cast in each Congressional district, with averages of 403,509 for Congressional races and 405,131 for the Presidential race.  (Notably, Wisconsin had the smallest “spread” of 1,622.)

In 24 Congressional districts, roughly half, the total number of votes cast for the two primary presidential candidates was within 30,000 of this average – between 344,000 and 404,000.  Fourteen districts had between 406,000 and 460,000 votes cast for the two primary presidential candidates, with 11 of these “higher-turnout” districts favoring President Trump.  Eleven districts had between 221,000 and 336,000 votes cast for the two primary presidential candidates.  Of those 11, six had between 312,000 votes and 336,000 votes cast for the two primary presidential candidates, with five of those six favoring President Trump.  Five of the 11 featured between 221,000 and 288,000 votes casts for the two primary presidential candidates, with all five of these “lower-turnout” districts favoring President-Elect Biden.

Thus, when looking at the data broadly, there is nothing unusual in the data to suggest electoral fraud of any sort.  There is a relatively broad distribution with a modest concentration in the middle of the range, as one would expect.  There is no Congressional district in which an “aberrational” number of votes were cast that would be consistent with a claim that there were “tens of thousands” or “hundreds of thousands” of ballots that suddenly appeared.  Indeed, in two of the Congressional districts in which the President’s campaign has challenged vote counts – one covering parts of Wayne County in Michigan (288,000) and one coverings parts of Milwaukee County in Wisconsin (314,000) – there were a relatively small number of votes compared to the average across Congressional districts. 

1. State-by-State Analysis

The state-by-state analyses start with a compilation of the Congressional races in each state to reflect Republican and Democratic participation in each state across all Congressional districts.  Then the analyses look at the vote tallies from President Trump and President-Elect Biden in each Congressional district to compare the results for each candidate relative to the corresponding Congressional candidate in that district. 

These data are complicated by the fact that more people voted in the Presidential election than in the Congressional elections.  In Wisconsin, there were 12,980 more votes for the Republican and Democratic Presidential candidates than for all of the Republican and Democratic Congressional candidates across all Congressional districts.  In Georgia, there were 43,024 more votes in the Presidential race.  In Arizona there were 66,995 more votes in the Presidential race.  In Nevada, there were 74,024 more votes in the Presidential race.  Finally, in Michigan, there were 147,484 more votes in the Presidential race. 

These “extra” Presidential voters – voters who voted in the Presidential election but not in a Congressional election -- make the analysis of Presidential voting difficult because there are some “unknowns” related to these “extra” Presidential voters. 

First, we don’t really know the number of “extra” Presidential voters.  The number of “extra” Presidential voters noted above within each state is the minimum number of “extra” Presidential voters.  This number is derived based on the assumption that all people who voted in the Congressional election in a given district also voted in the Presidential election.  That may not be true.  For example, some people who voted in the Congressional election may have decided not to vote in the Presidential election. Thus, the number of “extra” Presidential voters could be somewhat larger in each state.

Second, when the number of people voting for a Presidential candidate is larger than the number of people voting for that party’s Congressional candidate in that district, we can’t really identify whether that is because of “extra” Presidential voters or because of voters who switched sides – voters who voted for one party’s Congressional candidate and then voted for the other party’s Presidential candidate.

Third, when the number of people voting for a Presidential candidate in a Congressional district is less than the number of people who voted for that party’s Congressional candidate in that district, that difference reflects the minimum number of people who voted in the Congressional election but chose not to vote for the Presidential candidate of the same party. Given the existence of “extra” voters, there could be an even larger number of people who voted for a given party’s Congressional candidate but did not vote for that party’s Presidential candidate.

Fourth, when the number of people voting for a Presidential candidate in a Congressional district is less than the number of people who voted for that party’s Congressional candidate in that district, we cannot know for sure whether those not voting for the Presidential candidate of the same party chose not to vote or chose to vote for the candidate of the other party. 

Fifth, we cannot know for sure what the “split” was in terms of “extra” Presidential voters – i.e., the number who voted for President Trump as compared with the number who voted for President-Elect Biden.

Thus, when one looks at the data on a state-by-state basis, one simply has to try to look at net gains (losses) for Presidential candidates relative to their party’s Congressional candidates.  One cannot always explain the reasons for the difference – or may only be able to explain partially the reasons for the difference. 

1. ARIZONA

In Arizona’s nine Congressional districts, the Democratic candidate won in five districts while the Republican candidate won in four districts.  As shown below in Table 1 – Arizona Congressional and Presidential Voting Comparisons, across all nine districts, Republican candidates garnered 1,637,516 votes, while the Democratic candidates garnered 1,629,318, a difference of only 8,198 votes in favor of Republicans.  In total there were 3,266,834 votes cast for Republicans or Democrats in the nine Congressional elections. 

The Presidential election in Arizona garnered greater participation, with a total of 3,333,829 votes cast for President Trump or President-Elect Biden.  President Trump received 1,661,686 (24,170 more votes than the total cast for Republican Congressional candidates), but President-Elect Biden received 1,672,143 (42,825 more votes than the total cast for Democratic Congressional candidates).  In total, there were 66,995 more votes cast for one of the two primary presidential candidates than for all of the Republican and Democratic Congressional candidates.  

Table 1 demonstrates that the biggest shifts in favor of Biden occurred in three Republican Congressional districts – AZ4, AZ5, and AZ8 -- in which the Republican candidate for Congress and President Trump won.  In each of those districts, however, the margin for Trump was less than the margin for the Republican Congressional candidate. 

In AZ5, President Trump gained 396 additional votes compared to the Republican Congressional candidate, while President-Elect Biden gained 12,099 additional votes compared to the Democratic Congressional candidate, a net gain for Biden of 11,703. 

In AZ8, Trump had 190 fewer votes than the Republican Congressional candidate, while Biden had 10,875 more votes than the Democratic Congressional candidate, a net gain of 11,065. 

Finally, in AZ4, Trump gained 2,120 votes, while Biden gained 5,540, a net gain of 3420 for Biden. 

In just these three “Republican” Congressional districts Biden had a net gain of 26,188 in total. The relative gain for Biden in these three districts almost certainly reflects that some number of people who voted for the Republican Congressional candidate did not vote for President Trump and either did not vote in the Presidential race or voted instead for President-Elect Biden.  (The net gain (or loss) for Biden (Column I) is calculated by taking the number of votes for Biden (Column E) less the number of Democratic Congressional votes (Column B) (tabulated in Column H) and then subtracting the difference between the number of votes for Trump (Column D) less the number of Republic Congressional votes (Column A) (tabulated in Column G).)

In three other Congressional districts, Biden also saw more modest gains. 

In AZ9, a Democratic Congressional district, Trump saw a gain of 2,514 votes relative to the Republican Congressional candidate, while Biden saw a gain of 7,098 relative to the Democratic Congressional candidate, a net gain for Biden of 4,584. 

In AZ2, another Democratic Congressional district, Trump saw a gain of 828, while Biden saw a gain of 3,423, for a net gain for Biden of 2,635. 

Finally, in AZ6, another Republican Congressional district, Trump saw a gain of 4,383, while Biden saw a gain of 4,721, a net gain for Biden of 338.  Across these three Congressional districts, Biden had a net gain of 7,557 in total.

Interestingly, however, in the remaining three “Democratic” districts – AZ1, AZ3, and AZ7 -- districts in which the Democratic candidate for Congress and President-Elect Biden won, Biden experienced a net loss.  That is, the margin for Biden was less than the margin for the Democratic Congressional candidate. 

In AZ7, Trump gained 5,210 relative to the Republican Congressional candidate, while Biden lost 323 votes relative to the Democratic Congressional candidate, a net loss of 5,533. 

In AZ1, Trump gained 3,964 votes, while Biden lost 1,287 votes, for a net loss for Biden of 5,251. 

Finally, in AZ3, Trump gained 4,945, while Biden gained 639 votes, for a net loss for Biden of 4,306 votes. 

In these three Democratic Congressional districts, Biden experienced a net loss of 15,090 in total. 

TABLE 1 – Arizona Congressional and Presidential Voting Comparisons

District	A. Rep.	B. Dem.	C. Total	D. Trump	E. Biden	F. Total	G. Trump Excess (Def.)	H. Biden Excess (Def.)	I. Biden Net Gain (Loss)
AZ1	176709	188469	365178	180673	187182	367855	3964	(1287)	(5251)
AZ2	170975	209945	380920	171803	213408	385211	828	3463	2635
AZ3	94594	174243	268837	99539	174882	274421	4945	639	(4306)
AZ4	278002	120484	398486	280122	126024	406146	2120	5540	4584
AZ5	262414	183171	445585	262810	195270	458080	396	12099	11703
AZ6	217783	199644	417427	222166	204365	426531	4383	4721	338
AZ7	50226	165452	215678	55436	165129	220565	5210	(323)	(5533)
AZ8	251633	170816	422449	251443	181691	433134	(190)	10875	11065
AZ9	135180	217094	352274	137694	224192	361886	2514	7098	4584
Total	1637516	1629318	3266834	1661686	1672143	3333829	24170	42825	18655
	Deficit	-8,198	Increase	24170	42825	66995		Margin	10467

With net gains for Biden in six Congressional districts (four of which were Republican districts), totaling 33,745, and net gains for Trump (net losses for Biden) in three Democratic Congressional districts, totaling 15,090, Biden gained statewide a net of 18,655, enough to take a Democratic deficit of 8,198 in the Congressional races and turn it into a surplus of 10,457 in the Presidential race.

Biden’s win in Arizona was cobbled together across six of the nine Congressional districts, but it was primarily Biden’s ability to gain ground in two Republican districts – AZ5 and AZ8 – with a net improvement of 22,768 votes over the Democratic Congressional candidates in those two districts—that was largely outcome determinative. 

Notably, this pattern of gains and losses across Congressional districts hardly presents evidence of a coordinated plan to commit election fraud.  Biden lost ground in three Democratic Congressional districts and gained ground in all four Republican Congressional districts along with two other Democratic Congressional districts, with two of the Republican Congressional districts -- AZ5 and AZ8 --  being the most notable. 

2. GEORGIA

In Georgia’s 14 Congressional districts, the Democratic candidate won only six districts while the Republican candidate won eight districts.  As shown below in Table 2 – Georgia Congressional and Presidential Voting Comparisons, across all 14 districts, Republican candidates garnered 2,499,387 votes, while the Democratic candidates garnered 2,393,089 votes, a difference of 106,298 votes in favor of Republicans.  In total there were 4,892,476 votes cast for Republicans or Democrats in the 14 Congressional elections. 

The Presidential election in Georgia garnered slightly greater participation overall, with 4,935,500 votes cast for President Trump or President-Elect Biden.  Significantly, however, President Trump received only 2,461,855 votes (37,532 FEWER votes than Republican Congressional candidates in Georgia).  By contrast, President-Elect Biden received 2,473,645 (80,556 MORE votes than Democratic Congressional candidates).  Simply put, if President Trump had received as many votes as the Republican Congressional candidates in Georgia, he would have won Georgia.  The reason President Trump lost Georgia is because at least 37,532 people who voted for Republican Congressional candidates in Georgia did not vote for President Trump, and either did not vote or voted for President-Elect Biden instead.

In Georgia, President Trump started with a 106,298 advantage if all people voting for Republican Congressional candidates had voted for President Trump.  But that is not what happened.  Instead, at least 37,532 voters who voted for Republican Congressional candidates did not vote for President Trump.  If we assume that all the Republican Congressional voters who did not vote for President Trump voted for President-Elect Biden, that would have resulted in a “swing” of 75,064 votes in favor of President-Elect Biden. In addition, as in Arizona, there were at least 43,024 additional voters who voted in the Presidential election but not in the Congressional elections.

Through the combination of people who voted for Republican Congressional candidates but did not vote President Trump and may have voted for President-Elect Biden instead, along with some number of additional Presidential voters, President-Elect Biden had a net gain of 118,088, more than enough to overcome the initial deficit of 106,298 votes. 

There were 10 Congressional districts in which shifts in favor of Biden occurred, seven of which were Republican Congressional districts (districts in which the Republican Congressional candidate and President Trump both won).  In each of those seven Republican Congressional districts, the margin for Trump was less than the margin for the Republican Congressional candidate.  In six of those seven districts, the net gain for Biden was at least 10,000 votes. 

In GA11, Trump lost 10,329 votes relative to the Republican Congressional candidate while Biden gained 11,030 votes relative to the Democratic Congressional candidate, a net gain of 22,359. 

In GA3, Trump lost 5,528, while Biden gained 10,433, a net gain of 15,961. 

In GA10, Trump lost 5,021, while Biden gained 9,020, a net gain of 14,041. 

In GA1, Trump lost 4,613, while Biden gained 8,327, a net gain of 12,940. 

In GA12, Trump lost 3,896, while Biden gained 7,577, a net gain of 11,473.

In GA8, Trump lost 2,831, while Biden gained 7,652, a net gain of 10,483. 

In the seventh Republican district, GA9, Trump lost 758, while Biden gained 5,684, a net gain of 6,442. 

Just across those seven Republican districts, Biden’s net gain totaled 93,699.

The three Democratic Congressional districts in which a shift in favor of Biden occurred were GA5, GA6, and GA7.  These were districts in which Biden beat Trump by more than the Democratic Congressional candidate beat the Republican Congressional candidate. 

In GA5, Trump lost 6,725 votes, while Biden gained 11,201 votes, a net gain of 17,926. 

In GA6, Trump lost 14,210 votes, while Biden gained 2,847, a net gain of 17,057. 

In GA7, Trump lost 5,354, while Biden gained 8,244, a net gain of 13,598. 

Across these three districts, Biden gained 47,951.

The other four Congressional districts swung in favor of President Trump, three of which were Democratic Congressional districts (districts in which both the Democratic Congressional candidate and President-Elect Biden received the most votes). 

In GA2, President Trump gained 9,099 votes while President-Elect Biden lost 6,417 votes, a net loss for Biden of 15,516. 

In GA13, Trump gained 4,454 votes, while Biden lost 1,046 votes, a net loss for Biden of 5,500. 

In GA4, Trump gained 2,999, while Biden gained 2,829, a net loss for Biden of 170 votes.  

Finally, in GA14, a Republican Congressional district, Trump gained 5,181 votes, while Biden gained 3,175, for a net loss for Biden of 2,006 votes. 

In total, across these four Congressional districts, Biden saw a net loss of 23,192 votes.

TABLE 2 – Georgia Congressional and Presidential Voting Comparisons

District	A. Rep.	B. Dem.	C. Total	D. Trump	E. Biden	F. Total	G. Trump Excess (Def.)	H. Biden Excess (Def.)	I. Biden Net Gain (Loss)
G1	189457	135238	324695	184844	143565	328409	(4613)	8327	12940
G2	111620	161397	273017	120719	154980	275699	9099	(6417)	(15516)
G3	241526	129792	371318	235998	140225	376223	(5528)	10433	15961
G4	69393	278906	348299	72392	281735	354127	2999	2829	(170)
G5	52646	301857	354503	45921	313058	358979	(6725)	11201	17926
G6	189320	216775	406095	175110	219622	394732	(14210)	2847	17057
G7	180564	190900	371464	175210	199144	374354	(5354)	8244	13598
G8	198701	109264	307965	195870	116916	312786	(2831)	7652	10483
G9	292750	79797	372547	291992	85481	377473	(758)	5684	6442
G10	235810	142636	378446	230789	151656	382445	(5021)	9020	14041
G11	245259	160623	405882	234930	171653	406583	(10329)	11030	21359
G12	181038	129061	310099	177142	136638	313780	(3896)	7577	11473
G13	81476	279045	360521	85930	277999	363929	4454	(1046)	(5500)
G14	229827	77798	307625	235008	80973	315981	5181	3175	(2006)
Total	2499387	2393089	4892476	2461855	2473645	4935500	(37532)	80556	118088
	Deficit	-106298	Change	-37532	80556	43024		Margin	11790

With net gains of 93,699 in seven Republican Congressional districts, net gains of 47,951 in three Democratic Congressional districts, and a net loss of 23,192 in the other four Congressional districts, Biden had an overall net gain of 118,088 – more than enough to overcome the 106,298 vote advantage that Republican Congressional candidates had over Democratic Congressional candidates and turn it into a 11,790 vote margin of victory.

Biden’s win in Georgia resulted from widespread modest gains in 10 of the 14 Congressional districts, including seven Republican Congressional districts.  As noted above, President Trump lost Georgia because a number of people who voted for Republican Congressional candidates abandoned him and appear to have voted for President-Elect Biden instead. The problem for President Trump in Georgia was not a function of electoral fraud.  Nothing was stolen.  Rather, it was a function of dissatisfaction among a large enough group of people who voted for Republican Congressional candidates but who chose not to vote for President Trump and gave their votes (and a victory in Georgia) to President-Elect Biden.

3. MICHIGAN

In Michigan’s 14 Congressional districts, the Democratic candidate won seven districts while the Republican candidate won seven districts.  As shown below in Table 3 – Michigan Congressional and Presidential Voting Comparisons, across all 14 districts, Republican candidates garnered 2,617,881 votes, while the Democratic candidates garnered 2,688,527 votes, a difference of 70,646 votes in favor of the Democrats.  In total there were 5,306,408 votes cast for Republicans or Democrats in the 14 Congressional elections. 

As with Arizona and Georgia, there were a large number of voters who voted in the Presidential election but not in the Congressional elections.  As a result, the Presidential election in Michigan generated 5,453,854 votes cast for President Trump or President-Elect Biden, an increase of 147,484 voters.  Significantly, however, President Trump received only 2,649,852 votes (31,971 more votes than Republican Congressional candidates in Michigan).  By contrast, President-Elect Biden received 2,804,040 (115,513 more votes than Democratic Congressional candidates). 

Given how the Congressional vote unfolded in Michigan, President Trump was unlikely to carry the day, but the Presidential vote swung even more in favor of President-Elect Biden, expanding the margin of victory to over 150,000.

There were ten Congressional districts in which shifts in favor of Biden occurred, including all seven Republican Congressional districts (districts in which the Republican Congressional candidate and President Trump both won).  In each of those seven Republican Congressional districts, the margin for Trump was less than the margin for the Republican Congressional candidate.  In four of those seven districts, the net gain for Biden was at least 30,000 votes.  These four Republican Congressional districts marked the vast majority of Biden’s gains.

In MI6, Trump lost 13,988 votes relative to the Republican Congressional candidate while Biden gained 28,057 votes relative to the Democratic Congressional candidate, a net gain of 42,045. 

In MI2, Trump lost 13,303 votes, while Biden gained 22,922 a net gain of 36,225. 

In MI1, Trump lost 12,126, while Biden gained 18,074, a net gain of 30,200. 

In MI4, Trump lost 8,182, while Biden gained 21,829, a net gain of 30,011. 

Across these four Republican Congressional districts President-Elect Biden gained 138,481 votes

In the other three Republican Congressional districts (MI3, MI7, MI10), and in three Democratic Congressional districts (MI11, MI13, MI14), President-Elect Biden experienced more modest gains.  Taking the three Republican Congressional districts first:

In MI3, Trump lost 5,887, while Biden gained 4,806, a net gain of 10,693.

In MI7, Trump lost 2,941, while Biden gained. 5,198, for a net gain of 8,139. 

In MI10, Trump actually gained 2,264 votes, but Biden gained 8,708, a net gain of 6,444. 

In the three Democratic Congressional districts, President Trump gained votes relative to the Republican Congressional candidate, but President-Elect Biden gained more votes relative to the Democratic Congressional candidate. 

In M11, Trump gained 1,394 votes, but Biden gained 11,568 votes, a net gain of 10,174. 

In MI13, Trump gained 4,851 votes, while Biden gained 6,330, a net gain of 1,479. 

In MI14, Trump gained 5,367, while Biden gained 5,477, a net gain of 110. 

Across this combination of three Republican Congressional districts and three Democratic Congressional districts, President-Elect Biden gained a total of 37,039 votes.  Thus, these six districts were helpful to Biden, but were far less helpful than the first four Republican Congressional districts described above.

The other four Congressional districts swung in favor of President Trump by between 18,000 and 29,000 votes.  Three of these were Democratic Congressional districts (districts in which both the Democratic Congressional candidate and President-Elect Biden received the most votes).  One was a “mixed” district – a district in which the Democratic Congressional candidate won in the Congressional race, but in which President Trump won in the Presidential race. 

In MI5, President Trump gained 22,440 votes relative to the Republican Congressional candidate, while President-Elect Biden lost 7372 votes relative to the Democratic Congressional candidate, a net loss of 29,812 for Biden. 

In MI9, Trump gained 21,785, while Biden lost 1,060, a net loss of 22,845 for Biden. 

In MI12, Trump gained 17,173, while Biden lost 3,187, a net loss of 20,360. 

Finally, in the “mixed” district, MI8, Trump gained 13,124, while Biden lost 5,837, a net loss of 18,961. 

In these four districts, President-Elect Biden experienced a net loss of 91,978 votes.

Table 3 – Michigan Congressional and Presidential Voting Comparisons

District	A. Rep.	B. Dem.	C. Total	D. Trump	E. Biden	F. Total	G. Trump Excess (Def.)	H. Biden Excess (Def.)	I. Biden Net Gain (Loss)
MI1	256581	153328	409909	244455	171402	415857	(12126)	18074	30200
MI2	238711	154122	392833	225408	177044	402452	(13303)	22922	36225
MI3	213649	189769	403418	207762	194575	402337	(5887)	4806	10693
MI4	242621	120802	363423	234439	142631	377070	(8182)	21829	30011
MI5	150772	196599	347371	173212	189227	362439	22440	(7372)	(29812)
MI6	211496	152085	363581	197508	180142	377650	(13988)	28057	42045
MI7	227524	159743	387267	224583	164941	389524	(2941)	5198	8139
MI8	202525	217922	420447	215649	212085	427734	13124	5837	(18961)
MI9	153296	230318	383614	175081	229258	404339	21785	(1060)	(22845)
MI10	271607	138179	409786	273871	146887	420758	2264	8708	6444
MI11	215405	226128	441533	216799	237696	454495	1394	11568	10174
MI12	117719	254957	372676	134892	251770	386662	17173	(3187)	(20360)
MI13	53311	223205	276516	58162	229535	287697	4851	6330	1479
MI14	62664	271370	334034	68031	276847	344878	5367	5477	110
Total	2617881	2688527	5306408	2649852	2804040	5453892	31971	115513	83542
	Surplus	70646	Change	31971	115513	147484		Margin	154188

With net gains of 138,481 votes in four Republican Congressional districts, and net gains of 37,039 in six other Congressional districts (three Republican and three Democratic), and a net loss of 91,978 votes in the other four Congressional districts (three of which were Democratic districts and one of which President Trump won even though a Democrat won the Congressional race), President-Elect Biden had an overall net gain of 83,542 votes to supplement the 70,646 vote margin that Democratic Congressional candidates had over Republican Congressional candidates, to yield the 154,188 vote margin of victory.

Biden’s win in Michigan resulted from significant gains in four Republican Congressional districts supplemented by widespread modest gains in six other Congressional districts, counterbalanced by losses in four Democratic Congressional districts.  President Trump was likely to lose Michigan, given that there were more votes for Democratic Congressional candidates than for Republican Congressional candidates, but the margin expanded primarily because large numbers of people who voted for Republican Congressional candidates abandoned President Trump and either did not vote in the Presidential election or voted for President-Elect Biden.   The problem for President Trump in Michigan was not a function of electoral fraud.  The election in Michigan was not stolen.  Trump lost in Michigan largely because of dissatisfaction among a large enough group of people who voted for Republican Congressional candidates but who voted for Biden instead of Trump and thereby assured President-Elect Biden the victory in Michigan.

4. NEVADA

In Nevada’s four Congressional districts, the Democratic candidate won in three districts while the Republican candidate won in one district.  As shown below in Table 4 – Nevada Congressional and Presidential Voting Comparisons, across all four districts, Republican candidates garnered 633,827 votes, while the Democratic candidates garnered 665,526, a difference of only 31,699 votes in favor of Democrats.  In total there were 1,299,353 votes cast for Republicans or Democrats in the nine Congressional elections. 

The Presidential election in Nevada garnered greater participation, with a total of 1,373,377 votes cast for President Trump or President-Elect Biden, 74,024 votes more than were cast for the Republican and Democratic candidates in the Congressional elections.  President Trump received 669,891 (36,064 more votes than the total cast for Republican Congressional candidates), but President-Elect Biden received 703,486 (37,960 more votes than the total cast for Democratic Congressional candidates).  In total, there were 74,024 more votes cast for one of the two primary presidential candidates than for all of the Republican and Democratic Congressional candidates.

Table 4 demonstrates that there was a shift in favor of Biden in the one Republican Congressional district, and that there was a shift in favor of Trump in the three Democratic Congressional districts.

In NV2, the one Republican Congressional district, Trump lost 5,823 votes relative to the Republican Congressional candidate, while President-Elect Biden gained 15,244 votes relative to the Democratic Congressional candidate, for a net gain of 21,067 votes for Biden.

In NV1, NV3, and NV4, the three Democratic Congressional districts, however, it was a different story.

In NV3, Trump gained 22,327 votes relative to the Republican Congressional candidate, while Biden gained 10,760 relative to the Democratic Congressional candidate, a net loss for Biden of 11,567. 

In NV1, Trump gained 10,486, while Biden gained 5,556, a net loss for Biden of 4,930. 

In NV4, Trump gained 9,074, while Biden gained 6,400, a net loss for Biden of 2,674. 

Across these three Congressional districts, Biden saw a net loss of 19,171.  Thus, across all four Congressional districts in Nevada, Biden saw a net gain of 1,896, slightly increasing the margin of victory in the state beyond the margin Democratic Congressional candidates held over Republican Congressional candidates. 

 Table 4 – Nevada Congressional and Presidential Voting Comparisons

District	A. Rep.	B. Dem.	C. Total	D. Trump	E. Biden	F. Total	G. Trump Excess (Def.)	H. Biden Excess (Def.)	I. Biden Net Gain (Loss)
N1	74490	137868	212358	84976	143424	228400	10486	5556	(4930)
N2	216078	155780	371858	210255	171024	381279	(5823)	15244	21067
N3	190975	203421	394396	213302	214181	427483	22327	10760	(11567)
N4	152284	168457	320741	161358	174857	336215	9074	6400	(2674)
Total	633827	665526	1299353	669891	703486	1373377	36064	37960	1896
	Surplus	31699	Change	36064	37960	74024		Margin	33595

President-Elect Biden’s win in Nevada started with a slightly stronger showing by Democratic Congressional candidates than by Republican Congressional candidates.  As in Arizona, there were tens of thousands of voters who voted in the Presidential race but not in the Congressional races.  Interestingly, Biden gained ground in the one Republican Congressional district while Trump gained ground in all three Democratic Congressional districts, with the overall change being marginal.   

Once again, this pattern of gains and losses across Congressional districts hardly presents evidence of a coordinated plan to commit election fraud.  Biden lost ground in three Democratic Congressional districts and gained ground in the one Republican Congressional district.  The Nevada story is a story of more people voting in the Presidential election than in the Congressional elections, with slightly more of those people seemingly voting for Biden than for Trump.

5. WISCONSIN

In Wisconsin’s eight Congressional districts, the Democratic candidate won in three districts while the Republican candidate won in five districts.  As shown below in Table 5 – Wisconsin Congressional and Presidential Voting Comparisons, across all eight districts, Republican candidates garnered 1,661,399 votes, while the Democratic candidates garnered 1,566,671, a difference of 94,728 votes in favor of Republicans.  In total there were 3,228,070 votes cast for Republicans or Democrats in the nine Congressional elections. 

The Presidential election in Wisconsin garnered slightly greater participation, with a total of 3,241,050 votes cast for President Trump or President-Elect Biden.  President Trump received 1,610,184 (51,215 FEWER votes than the total cast for Republican Congressional candidates), but President-Elect Biden received 1,630,866 (64,195 MORE votes than the total cast for Democratic Congressional candidates). Simply put, as with Georgia, if President Trump had received as many votes as the Republican Congressional candidates in Wisconsin, he would have won Wisconsin.  The reason President Trump lost Wisconsin is because at least 51,215 people who voted for Republican Congressional candidates in Wisconsin did not vote for President Trump.

In Wisconsin, President Trump started with a 94,728 advantage if all people voting for Republican Congressional candidates had voted for President Trump and all people voting for Democratic Congressional candidates had voted for President-Elect Biden.  But that is not what happened.  Instead, at least 51,215 voters who voted for Republican Congressional candidates did not vote for President Trump and  either did not vote or may have voted for President-Elect Biden. If we assume that all voters in Republican Congressional districts who did not vote for President Trump voted for President-Elect Biden, that would have resulted in a “swing” of 102,430 votes in favor of President-Elect Biden.  That would have been enough, by itself, to swing Wisconsin to Biden. 

In addition, there were at least 12,980 people who voted in the Presidential election but not in the Congressional elections.  Through the combination of people who voted for Republican Congressional candidates but did not vote President Trump and may have voted for President-Elect Biden instead, along with some number of additional Presidential voters, President-Elect Biden had a net gain of 115,410, more than enough to overcome the initial deficit of 94,728 votes.

Table 5 demonstrates that the biggest shifts in favor of Biden occurred in three Republican Congressional Districts – WI1, WI5, and WI8 – all in the eastern part of the state -- in which the Republican candidate for Congress and President Trump won.  In each of those districts, however, the margin for Trump was less than the margin for the Republican Congressional candidate. 

In WI8, President Trump had 27,033 fewer votes than the Republican Congressional candidate, while President-Elect Biden had 24,578 more votes than the Democratic Congressional candidate, a net gain of 51,611 for Biden. 

In WI1, Trump has 17,603 fewer votes, while Biden had 19,772 more votes, a net gain of 37,375 for Biden. 

In WI5, Trump had 9,631 fewer votes, while Biden had 11,949 more motes, a net gain of 21,580. 

Across just these three Congressional districts – all Republican districts – Biden had a net gain of 110,566.  These three Republican Congressional districts, on their own, essentially cost Trump the state of Wisconsin.

Two other Republican Congressional districts and two Democratic Congressional districts also favored Biden, although by much more modest amounts.  The two Republican Congressional districts were WI6 and WI7; the Democratic Congressional districts were W2 and W4.

In WI6, a Republican Congressional district, Trump had 6054 fewer votes than the Republican Congressional candidate, while Biden had 6,217 more votes than the Democratic Congressional candidate, a net gain of 12,272 for Biden.

In WI4, a Democratic Congressional district, Trump had 1,064 more votes than the Republican Congressional candidate, while Biden had 9,595 votes more than the Democratic Congressional candidate, a net gain of 8,531 for Biden.

In WI2, a Democratic Congressional district, Trump had 1,867 fewer votes than the Republican Congressional candidate, while Biden had 5,284 votes more than the Democratic Congressional candidate, a net gain of 7,151 for Biden.

Finally, in WI7, a Republican Congressional district, Trump had 3,226 fewer votes than the Republican Congressional candidate, while Biden had 2,363 votes more than the Democratic Congressional candidate, a net gain of 5,589 for Biden.

Across these four Congressional districts, Biden had a total net gain of 33,543 votes.

The final Congressional district, W3, was a “mixed” district – a district in which the Democratic Congressional candidate won in the Congressional race, but in which President Trump won in the Presidential race.  In W3, Trump garnered 13,135 more votes than the Republican Congressional candidate, while Biden had 15,564 fewer votes than the Democratic Congressional candidate, resulting in a net loss for Biden of 28,699 votes.

Table 5 – Wisconsin Congressional and Presidential Voting Comparisons

District	A. Rep.	B. Dem.	C. Total	D. Trump	E. Biden	F. Total	G. Trump Excess (Def.)	H. Biden Excess (Def.)	I. Biden Net Gain (Loss)
W1	238271	163170	401441	220668	182942	403610	(17603)	19772	37375
W2	138306	318523	456829	136439	323807	460246	(1867)	5284	7151
W3	189524	199870	389394	202659	184306	386965	13135	(15564)	(28699)
W4	70769	232668	303437	71833	242263	314096	1064	9595	8531
W5	265434	175902	441336	255803	187851	443654	(9631)	11949	21580
W6	238874	164239	403113	232820	170457	403277	(6054)	6218	12272
W7	252048	162741	414789	248822	165104	413926	(3226)	2363	5589
W8	268173	149558	417731	241140	174136	415276	(27033)	24578	51611
	1661399	1566671	3228070	1610184	1630866	3241050	(51215)	64195	115410
	Deficit	94728	Change	(51215)	64195	12980		Margin	20628

With net gains of 110,566 votes in three Republican Congressional districts, and net gains of 33,543 in four other Congressional districts (two Republican and two Democratic), and a net loss of 28,699 in one “mixed” Congressional district, Biden had an overall net gain of 115,410 votes to overcome the 94,728 vote deficit that Democratic Congressional candidates had relative to Republican Congressional candidates, to yield the 20,628 vote margin of victory in Wisconsin.

Biden’s win in Wisconsin resulted almost entirely from significant gains in three Republican Congressional districts in the eastern portion of the state (gains generated significantly by people who voted for Republican Congressional candidates, did not vote for President Trump, and may have voted for President-Elect Biden).  The gains for Biden across the other four districts were largely counterbalanced by the net loss for Biden in W3.  As noted above, President Trump lost Wisconsin because a number of people who voted for Republican Congressional candidates abandoned Trump and either did not vote or voted for President-Elect Biden.   The problem for President Trump in Wisconsin was not a function of electoral fraud.  Nothing was stolen.  Rather, it was a function of dissatisfaction among a large enough group of people who voted for Republican Congressional candidates but who chose not to vote for President Trump and gave their votes (and a victory in Wisconsin) to President-Elect Biden.

1. Concluding Thoughts

There are 49 Congressional districts in the five swing states analyzed here – Arizona (9), Georgia (14), Michigan (14), Nevada (4) and Wisconsin (8).  They were almost perfectly evenly divided between districts won by Republican Congressional candidates (25) and districts won by Democratic Congressional candidates (24).  Of the 24 districts won by Democratic Congressional candidates, two (one in Michigan and one in Wisconsin) were won by President Trump rather than by President-Elect Biden.

Of the 25 Republican Congressional districts, President-Elect Biden had net gains in 24 of those districts.  Most significantly, in 20 of those districts, President Trump garnered fewer votes than the Republican Congressional candidate in those districts – so in 20 of those districts Trump lost votes that had gone to Republican Congressional candidates.

Of the 24 Democratic Congressional districts, President-Elect Biden had net losses in 13 of those districts.  More significantly, in only eight of those districts, did President-Elect Biden garner fewer votes than the Democratic Congressional candidate in those districts.

One intriguing aspect of these data involves the inverse relationship between the Congressional results in a given district and the results in the Presidential race.  In 37 of the 49 Congressional districts (24 Republican and 13 Democratic), the Presidential candidate from the party opposite of the party that won the Congressional election had a net gain in the district relative to the corresponding Congressional candidate.  In 28 of the 49 Congressional districts (20 Republican and 8 Democratic), the Presidential candidate for the party that won the Congressional election actually tallied fewer votes than the Congressional candidate of the same party.  The problem for President Trump is that this happened in 80% of the Republican Congressional districts, while it only happened in only 33% of the Democratic Congressional districts.  This suggests people who voted for Democratic Congressional candidates were more likely to be loyal to their presidential flag bearer than were people who voted for Republican Congressional candidates. 

As one reflects on the unfounded allegations of electoral fraud that have been rejected by state and federal courts in each of these states, I think one needs to consider what these data suggest.  Particularly in jurisdictions like Georgia and Wisconsin, where Republicans garnered more votes than Democrats in the Congressional races, but President Trump managed to lose, these data show that President Trump lost in these jurisdictions because in multiple counties in multiple Republican Congressional districts, dozens or hundreds or thousands of people who voted for Republican Congressional candidates opted not to vote for President Trump and may have opted to vote for President-Elect Biden.

Nothing was stolen.  Nothing was taken from President Trump.  President Trump lost in these five swing states because he failed to maintain the margin of victory of Republican Congressional candidates in 24 of the 25 Republican Congressional districts, and in fact, garnered fewer votes than the Republican Congressional candidates in 20 of the 25 Republican Congressional districts.