Initial Fall 2018 Enrollment Projections Reflect Increases In Applicant Volume And Strength

Applicant Pool Projection – 61,000 to 63,000

With the first release of this admission cycle’s Current Volume Summary from the LSAC, we have the opportunity to compare the current applicant cycle data with that in prior years.

The good news reported by LSAC and posted here on TaxProf Blog by Paul Caron yesterday is that applicant volume is 15,083, up over 14% compared to this point in the cycle last year. The Current Volume Summary states that at this point in the cycle last year, applicants represented roughly 24% of the final applicant pool. (In past years, the applicant volume in the first Current Volume Summary has averaged roughly one-quarter of the total applicant volume for the given admissions cycle.) This means that, at the moment, as shown in the chart below, we can anticipate a total applicant pool for the year in a range from 61,000 to perhaps 63,000, depending upon exactly how things unfold over the coming months. Given that this is only the first of several data points, there remains a large margin of error. By mid-January, after a few more current volume reports, and with a larger percentage of the applicants accounted for, one can have a little more confidence in the estimate for total applicant volume.

A total applicant pool of 61,000-63,000 would be the largest applicant volume since the 2011-2012 admissions cycle, which saw a total applicant pool of roughly 67,900. (Note that due to changes in LSAC reporting on total applicant pool starting in 2016, the comparisons with prior years are not exactly apples to apples.)

Comparison of Applicant Volume Between Initial Current Volume Summary and Total Applicant Pool for 2014-15 Cycle to 2017-18 Cycle (Estimated)

Admissions Cycle	Initial Current Volume Summary Total (Date)	Final Applicant Count for Cycle	% of Total Applicant Count for Cycle
2014-2015	11,415 (11/28/2014)	54,500	21%
2015-2016	13,881 (11/25/2015)	56,500	25%
2016-2017	14,892 (12/2/2016)	56,500	26%
2017-2018	15,083 (11/24/2017)	61,000-63,000 (EST.)	24-25% (EST.)

Improvement in Strength of Applicant Pool (and Matriculants)

The really good news, however, is buried in the details of the Current Volume Report. From 2010 to 2016, while the overall applicant volume declined from roughly 87,900 to roughly 56,500, the “composition” of the entering class profile also has shifted, with a smaller percentage of applicants/matriculants with a high LSAT of 160 or higher. As shown in the chart below, the percentage of applicants with a high LSAT of 160 or higher fell from 29.7% to roughly 25% between 2010 and 2016 while the percentage of matriculants with a high LSAT of 160 or higher fell from 38.3% to roughly 32% over the same period.

Percentage of Applicants and Matriculants with a High LSAT Score of 160 or Higher from 2010-2016

Admissions Cycle	Total Apps.	Apps. at 160 and Higher	% of Apps. at 160 or Higher	Total Matrics.	Matrics. as % of Apps.	Matrics. at 160 and Higher	Matrics. at 160 or Higher as Percentage of Apps. at 160 or Higher	% of Matrics. at 160 or Higher
2009-10	87900	26076	29.7%	52500	59.7%	20143	77.2%	38.3%
2010-11	78500	22376	28.5%	48700	62%	17630	78.8%	36.2%
2011-12	67900	18410	26.7%	44500	65.5%	14852	80.7%	33.4%
2012-13	59400	15409	25.9%	39700	66.8%	12596	81.7%	31.7%
2013-14	55700	14850	26.7%	37900	68%	12199	82.1%	32.2%
2014-15	54500	13503	24.8%	37100	68.1%	11248	83.3%	30.3%
2015-16	56500	14274	25.3%	37100	65.7%	11807	82.7%	31.8%

The initial Current Volume Summary for this cycle shows a significant increase in the number of applicants with a high LSAT of 160 or higher compared to the three most recent cycles. This likely will translate into a significant increase in the total pool of applicants with a high LSAT of 160 or higher and a corresponding increase in the number (and percentage) of matriculants with a high LSAT of 160 or higher. The pool of applicants with a high LSAT of 160 or higher may be more than 2000 larger than in the 2016-17 admissions cycle and the number of matriculants also may increase by nearly 2000.

Estimates of Total Applicants and Matriculants with a High LSAT of 160 or Higher for the 2017-18 Admissions Cycle (with Comparisons for 2014-15 through 2016-17)

Year	Number of Applicants with LSAT of 160 or Higher in Initial Current Volume Summary	Final Number of Applicants with LSAT of 160 or Higher	% of Final Number in Initial Current Volume Summary	Number of Matriculants with LSAT of 160 or Higher	Matriculants with LSAT of 160 or Higher as Percentage of Applicants with LSAT of 160 or Higher
2014-2015	5,095	13,503	37.7%	11248	83.3%
2015-2016	5,374	14,274	37.6%	11807	82.7%
2016-2017	5,404	13,613	39.7%	11,298 (EST.)	83% (EST.)
2017-2018	6,029	15,865 (EST.)	38% (EST.)	13,167(EST.)	83% (EST.)

If the percentage applicants who become matriculants remains around 66% for the current admissions cycle (roughly the same as in the 2015-16 cycle), the entering class in fall 2018 would be roughly 40,000 first-year students. If the number of matriculants with a high LSAT of 160 or higher is slightly more than 13,000, then the percentage of matriculants with a high LSAT of 160 or higher will rebound to nearly 32.5%, the highest percentage in five years.