Paul L. Caron
Dean


Tuesday, April 14, 2015

Organ Projects 2.6% Decline in Fall 2015 1L Enrollment, With 12.4% Decline in 165+ LSATs, 4.1% Increase in <150 LSATs

The Legal Whiteboard:  Projections for Law School Enrollment for Fall 2015, by Jerry Organ (St. Thomas):

This blog posting is designed to do three things.  First, following up on recent discussions regarding trends in applicants by Al Brophy at The Faculty Lounge and Derek Muller at Excess of Democracy, I provide a detailed analysis to project the likely total applicant pool we can expect at the end of the cycle based on trends from March through the end of the cycle in 2013 and 2014 [54,000, down 3.1% from 2014].  Second, using the likely total pool of applicants, I estimate the number of admitted students and matriculants, but also question whether the estimates might be too high given the decline in quality of the applicant pool in this cycle [36,975, down 2.6% from 2014].  Third, building on the second point, I suggest that law schools in the lower half of the top tier are likely to see unusual enrollment/profile pressure that may then have a ripple effect down through the rankings.

Estimates of Admitted Students and Matriculants for 2015

 

Applicants

Admitted   Students

Percent   of Applicants

Matriculants

Percent  of Admitted

2012

67,900

50,600

74.5%

44,481

87.9%

2013

59,400

45,700

76.9%

39,675

86.8%

2014

55,700

43,500

78.1%

37,924

87.2%

2015   (est.)

54,000

42,500

78.7%

36,975

87%

Estimates of Applicants and Matriculants with LSATs of 165+

 

Applicants with LSATs of 165+

Matriculants   with LSATs of 165+

Percent   of Applicants Matriculating

2010

12,177

9,477  

77.8%

2011

11,190

8,952  

80%

2012

9,196

7,571  

82.3%

2013

7,496

6,154  

82.1%

2014

7,477

6,189

82.8%

2015 (est.)

6,585

5,420

82.4%

Estimates of Applicants and Matriculants with LSATs of <150

 

Applicants   with LSATs of <150

Matriculants   with LSATs of <150

Percent   of Applicants Matriculating

2010

26,548

7,013

26.4%

2011

24,192

7,101

29.4%

2012

22,089

7,906

35.8%

2013

20,706

8,482

41%

2014

19,239

8,361

43.5%

2015 (est.)

18,350

8,700

47.4%

One interesting side note is that the significant decrease in the number of applicants with LSATs of 165+ is likely to put significant pressure on a number of top-50 law schools as they try to hold their enrollment and their LSAT profiles. Simply put, there are not enough applicants with LSATs of 165+ to allow all the law schools in the top-50 or so to maintain their profiles and their enrollment.

https://taxprof.typepad.com/taxprof_blog/2015/04/organ-projects-26-decline-in-fall-2015-1l-enrollment-.html

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Comments

Rome is burning. Bar failures will reach stratospheric levels.

Posted by: Jojo | Apr 14, 2015 6:17:52 PM