Brian Tamanaha’s latest blog post has been hailed by Stephen
Diamond and others as a major concession.
But in a comment below the post, Tamanaha explains to one of his
“I believe the doubts I raised about the study in my previous three
posts have not been answered satisfactorily.”
continue our response to Tamanaha’s first three posts before addressing Tamanaha’s
BT Claim 4:
Historical economic data tells us nothing about the future
"It is exeedingly rare to find reliably predictive 'historical norms'
in the social sciences because social life is too complex and
circumstances are constantly changing . . . S&M
have produced a narrow, partial, time-bound study that has zero
predictive relevance for anyone thinking about attending law school
today." A proper study "may require data over several centuries."
Response: We would have to be off by
85 percent for our basic conclusion to be incorrect.