Friday, May 13, 2011
The Congressional Budget Office yesterday released Changes in CBO’s Baseline Projections Since January 2001
Each year, the CBO issues baseline projections of federal spending and revenues for the following 10 years. Those projections are not intended as a forecast of future outcomes; rather, they are estimates of spending and revenues under the laws that are in effect at that time and are designed to provide a benchmark against which to measure future policy changes.
In January 2001, CBO’s baseline projections showed a cumulative surplus of $5.6 trillion for the 2002-2011 period. The actual results have differed from those projections because of subsequent policy changes, economic developments that differed from CBO’s forecast, and other factors. As a result, the federal government actually ran deficits from 2002 through 2010 and will incur a deficit in 2011 as well. The cumulative deficit over the 10-year period will amount to $6.2 trillion, CBO estimates—a swing of $11.8 trillion from the January 2001 projections.
The table below summarizes the differences between CBO’s baseline projections in January 2001 and the actual or currently projected results for each of the years over the 2002-2011 period.