Lily L. Batchelder (NYU), Families Facing Tax Increases Under Trump's Latest Tax Plan:
Donald Trump’s latest tax plan would cost more than $5 trillion over 10 years. Trump claims his plan would cut taxes for every income group, with the largest tax cuts for working- and middle-class families. But despite its enormous price tag, his plan would actually significantly raise taxes for millions of low- and middle-income families with children, with especially large tax increases for working single parents.
This paper explains why Trump’s latest tax plan raises taxes on so many families and provides examples of how large these tax increases would be. I conservatively estimate that Trump’s plan would increase taxes for roughly 7.8 million families with minor children. These families who would pay more taxes represent roughly 20% of households with minor children and more than half of single parents. They include roughly 25 million individuals and 15 million children.
Washington Post, A New Study Says Trump Would Raise Taxes for Millions. Trump’s Campaign Insists He Won’t.:
More than half of America's single parents and one-fifth of its families with children could see their federal income taxes go up under Republican Donald Trump's revamped tax plan, according to a new analysis of the plan by a New York University professor who previously served as a tax specialist for the Obama administration and the Senate Finance Committee.
The Trump campaign called the findings "pure fiction," contending the analysis neglects a crucial benefit for low-income taxpayers — and insisting that Trump would instruct the congressional committees drafting his plan into law that taxes would not be allowed to rise for any low- or middle-income American.
"The fact that NYU didn't include in their model the $500 per-child match — a central element of our plan — demonstrates that their entire exercise is fatally flawed," Trump national policy director Stephen Miller said in a statement. "Nor did they model the effects of the tax-free spending on both children and elderly dependents that is additional to either the new deductions or those in current law. They modeled someone else's plan, but not ours."
The analysis comes from Lily Batchelder, a professor at NYU's law school who focuses on tax policy and worked for President Obama's National Economic Council. She has friends and former colleagues on Democrat Hillary Clinton's campaign team but says she conducted this study entirely independent of the campaign. ...
The Tax Foundation estimates that middle-class taxpayers, on average, will see a nearly $500 a year boost in their incomes from Trump's plan, even before factoring in additional economic growth spurred by tax cuts. But an economist at the foundation who conducted that analysis, Alan Cole, said Friday that on a family-by-family basis, Batchelder's estimates sound "plausible," though the foundation has not done similar modeling itself.
Update: Vox, Study: Donald Trump Would Raise Taxes on Millions of Middle-Class Families