Friday, July 19, 2013
Following up on my prior posts (links below): Paul Campos (Colorado), If I Had a Million Dollars:
The legal internets are atwitter with talk of a new paper which suggests that a law degree is worth a million dollars. It’s an interesting exercise in econometric advocacy, and I’m going to spend some time analyzing the authors’ claims.
I’m going to proceed in two parts. First, I’m going to assume for the purposes of argument that the paper’s interpretation of its data is correct in regard to the value of law degrees acquired in the past, and that, as they argue, there is no good reason to assume this value will not be maintained in regard to law degrees acquired in the future. Then I’ll critique those assumptions.
Simkovic and McIntyre estimate “the mean pre-tax lifetime value of a law degree as approximately $1,000,000.” ... The authors estimate that the median post-tax value of a law degree is (or has been, which they treat as the same thing) $420,000. Since they assume a working life of 42 years, they are in fact estimating that for the median graduate a law degree generates a $10,000 annual income premium (in 2012 dollars) over what an otherwise similar college graduates who choose not to go to law school could expect to earn over the course of their lifetimes. That still sounds like a pretty good outcome, even if it’s not nearly as spectacular-sounding as the headline-grabbing million-dollar claim.
Yet the wary reader will have noticed a striking omission from the argument so far: how much is it going to cost a law graduate to generate this premium? ... Recall that the authors estimate the median post-tax value of a law degree as $420,000. How much will the typical law student end up paying, in principal and interest, in order to make this investment? The answer is $444,150. ...
Does this mean that, even assuming the authors’ claims about the income premium generated by a law degree are actually correct, a law degree will have negative net present value for the typical matriculant in the class of 2013? Not quite. This is because the authors discount the hypothetical future earnings of current law students to present value. So – again, granting the accuracy of all of their data and methods – the present value of a law degree for people now enrolling in law school would be the difference between $420,000 and the negative net present value of a legal obligation to amortize $200,000 of debt at 7.5% interest over the next 25 years.
What this latter figure is depends on various assumptions about future rates of inflation and the like, but, given recent historical trends (inflation has been considerably less than half of the interest rate law students must pay on their debt), it’s reasonable to assume that the negative net present value of this obligation is somewhere around halfway between the present payoff cost of the debt and the total future income stream necessary to amortize it under its terms. (The authors use a real discount rate of 3%, which is congruent with this assumption).
In other words, if we give the authors’ analysis every possible benefit of the doubt, we would conclude that, after including the cost of the investment in the analysis, the typical pecuniary premium generated by a law degree acquired by matriculants in the class of 2013 will be
$2,619 per year in constant 2012 dollars, or $218.25 per monthabout $109,000 (On reflection I think the deleted numbers are wrong, because they end up discounting the increased earnings inappropriately. The $109K number represents net present value after subtracting the net present negative value of the investment cost, discounted at the same rate as the higher earnings).
- Paul Campos (Colorado), If I Had a Million Dollars, Part II
- Paul Campos (Colorado), If I Had a Million Dollars, Part III
Update: Stephen F. Diamond (Santa Clara), Man Bites dog: “Bad Cop” Law Prof Paul Campos, Leader of Anti-Law School Camp, Backs New JD Value Study:
In the world of corporate finance there is a very simple decision rule: managers should accept all positive net present value (NPV) projects. This is a very simple and powerful concept. It lies at the heart of how we train managers at every business school in the world. ...
[Paul Campos] has simply done exactly what the paper implies all analysts of the value of a JD should do – apply relevant costs such as potential debt and taxes and subtract those from the expected and discounted future cash flows. Sure enough, even with his inputs (like the implication that students must borrow $200,000 to go to law school) the result Professor Campos comes up with is a NPV of $109,000, i.e., positive. ...
Now return to what I said at the outset: managers – in this case the managers are prospective law students “managing” their own human capital – should accept a project with positive NPV. In other words, even under Campos’ analysis the conclusion that a student should reach is that law school makes sense. The actual net dollar amount above present value is irrelevant as long as it is positive. ...
So, far from undermining the Million Dollar JD Value paper, Professor Campos simply confirms its fundamental insight: law school is a positive net present value project for the vast majority of law students even when tested by the institution’s leading opponent.
Prior TaxProf Blog coverage:
- What Is the Economic Value of a Law Degree -- $1 Million? (July 17, 2013)
- More on The $1 Million Value of a Law Degree (July 18, 2013)
- NY Times, WaPo, Others Debate The $1 Million Value of a Law Degree (July 18, 2013)
- More on The $1 Million Value of a Law Degree (July 20, 2013)
- Merritt on The $1 Million Value of a Law Degree (July 21, 2013)
- Diamond on The $1 Million Value of a Law Degree (July 22, 2013)
- Tamanaha: How 'The Million Dollar Law Degree' Study Systematically Overstates Value (July 23, 2013)
- Tamanaha: How the 'Million Dollar Law Degree' Study Understates Risk (Part I) (July 24, 2013)
- Tamanaha: Why the “Million Dollar Law Degree” Study Fails (Final Post) (July 25, 2013)
- Rasmusen: Critics of The Economic Value of a Law Degree Are Making the Paper Better (July 25, 2013)
- Pasquale and Simkovic Respond to Tamanaha (July 25, 2013)
- The American Lawyer: Paper on Law Degree's Economic Value a Non-Sequitur (July 26, 2013)
- Simkovic Responds to Tamanaha (Part 3) (July 26, 2013)
- Tamanaha: Short Term Versus Long Term Perspective (July 27, 2013)
- Harper, Diamond: The $1 Million Value of a Law Degree: Distraction, Astronomy, or Astrology? (July 28, 2013)
- Simkovic Responds to American Lawyer Op-Eds (July 29, 2013)
- Diamond Responds to Tamanaha (July 29, 2013)
- Rasmusen: The Economic Value of a Law Degree and the 'Typical' Law Student (July 29, 2013)
- Simkovic Responds to Tamanaha (Part 4) (July 30, 2013)