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Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Projected 2021 Law School Tuition: $80,000

The Law School Tuition Bubble: Private Law School Tuition Projections for 2016, 2021, by Matt Leichter:

[H]ow does one project law school tuition? I just extended the linear regression of each law school’s tuition based on its Official Guide entries going back to 2004. The basis is that past tuition increases are a predictor of future ones. ... The only addition for this year is that I’m adding a column on the right side giving the “relative variance,” which is a measure of how (in)accurate the linear regression test was when comparing projected tuition to their 2011 outcomes. I think the lower the better, but anything below -3.0 percent or so is probably too low. The idea is to give readers a measure of how reliable the estimate is, given that some law school engaged in serious expansions in recent years that I hope they couldn’t get away with now, especially Faulkner University, which doubled its tuition in the span of a few years.

Here are the Top 35 (out of 120 law schools) ranked according to projected 2021-22 tuition:

# SCHOOL TUITION: 2011-2012 TUITION: 2016-2017 TUITION: 2021-2022 RELATIVE VARIANCE
1. Cornell 53,226 66,800 79,800 1.7%
2. Yale 52,525 64,600 76,300 1.1%
3. Columbia 52,902 63,800 75,000 -0.9%
4. Northwestern 51,920 63,400 74,800 0.4%
5. Pennsylvania 50,718 62,200 73,500 0.4%
6. New England 40,984 57,300 72,300 5.1%
7. Seton Hall 46,840 59,900 72,200 2.8%
8. Cardozo 48,370 60,600 72,200 2.3%
9. Vermont 43,993 58,400 72,000 3.2%
10. Duke 49,617 60,500 71,400 0.2%
11. USC 50,591 61,000 71,300 0.0%
12. Brooklyn 48,441 60,000 71,200 1.0%
13. Fordham 47,986 59,600 70,700 2.1%
14. St. John’s 46,450 58,700 70,700 1.3%
15. Baylor 43,573 57,000 70,200 0.7%
16. Stanford 49,179 59,400 70,100 -1.6%
17. Syracuse 45,647 59,000 70,100 8.8%
18. NYU 50,336 59,900 69,700 -0.6%
19. Harvard 48,786 59,100 69,400 0.2%
20. Vanderbilt 46,148 58,200 68,900 5.2%
21. Touro 41,890 55,600 67,900 5.7%
22. Faulkner 32,187 51,300 67,800 17.1%
23. Chicago 47,786 58,000 67,800 1.5%
24. Georgetown 46,865 57,400 67,500 1.7%
25. Quinnipiac 45,050 55,700 66,500 -0.4%
26. Hofstra 45,600 56,000 66,400 0.4%
27. Wash. & Lee 41,947 54,200 65,900 2.6%
28. American 45,096 55,500 65,700 0.9%
29. G. Washington
45,750 55,300 64,800 0.2%
30. Washington U.
46,042 55,200 64,500 -0.2%
31. New York L.S. 47,800 56,000 63,900 1.0%
32. Loyola-L.A. 43,060 53,800 63,700 3.0%
33. Tulane 43,684 53,800 63,400 1.6%
34. Cal-Western 42,700 52,500 62,500 -0.5%
35. DePaul 41,690 52,100 62,500 -0.2%

 

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Comments

Holy cow this is scary.

At prices like this, it's cheaper to go get a law degree overseas and then get an LLM to meet Bar requirements. Are folks thinking to send students away, or is the elasticity of demand that strong for a JD?

Posted by: Nemo | Oct 10, 2012 7:52:40 AM

$240,000 to "think" like a lawyer. Wow. Used to be folks could learn how to be jerks to one another for free.

Posted by: DCW | Oct 11, 2012 1:19:52 PM